Azerbaijan vs Lithuania

This combination pairs two situations where away sides are well-equipped to frustrate their hosts. In the first matchup, Granada possesses a clear structural advantage in chance creation and ball retention, and their extra rest should allow them to outlast Real Sociedad B. In the second matchup, Lithuania only needs to avoid defeat to maintain their Nations League group lead, and their disciplined defensive shape will stifle an Azerbaijan side that creates chances but struggles mightily to finish them.

I think the market has leaned too far on Azerbaijan here. Their last home game produced a pile of shots against a side nobody expected to score, but the same attack had only level chances with Lithuania a week earlier. Nothing is really at stake for either team, and Lithuania arrive as the group leader with a settled squad, so I side with the visitors.

Both of these games look tight and short on chances, for different reasons. Azerbaijan and Lithuania meet again only eight days after a cagey 1-1, and neither side creates much. In Gijon, the home side are down to two fit first-team attackers against a Celta B team that has been a much tighter side on the road.

These two selections focus on teams poised to take advantage of favorable situational setups. In Spain, Granada's tactical adjustments offer a strong angle against a vulnerable home side. Meanwhile, in the Nations League, Lithuania's rest and freshness provide them with a distinct edge over an exhausted host.

Azerbaijan against Lithuania is a rematch of a 1-1 draw a week ago, and the numbers from the two sides' other games suggest that draw tells you less than it seems. Azerbaijan turned a game against Liechtenstein into 25 shots and still drew 0-0, while Lithuania needed 16 shots to win 2-0 at Liechtenstein. What I'd watch in this match is whether Lithuania let Azerbaijan have the ball the way Liechtenstein did, because the one time these two met, Azerbaijan did not get that kind of game.

[2026 UEFA Nations League] Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: Match Preview Kick-off: October 4, 22:00 KST