I think the market has leaned too far on Azerbaijan here. Their last home game produced a pile of shots against a side nobody expected to score, but the same attack had only level chances with Lithuania a week earlier. Nothing is really at stake for either team, and Lithuania arrive as the group leader with a settled squad, so I side with the visitors.
The first meeting in Kaunas ended 1-1. Lithuania scored from a penalty early on and Azerbaijan equalised soon after, helped by a goalkeeper error. Shots were 9-8 and the expected goals were almost identical, so neither side controlled it.
Azerbaijan's 0-0 with Liechtenstein looks better than it was. They had 25 shots, 16 of them from inside the box, and still did not score because every shot on target was saved. That is a finishing problem more than a sign of balance, and it comes on top of a long run without a win. At home over their last 20 games they have scored 14 and conceded 21.
Lithuania beat Liechtenstein 2-0 away and Andorra 3-0 in a friendly, and the preview I read lists no injury worries beyond two players who dropped out of the squad. The price for the first game in Kaunas had Lithuania clearly ahead at home. For the return it has swung to Azerbaijan being the favourite by more than home advantage alone explains.
