Both of these games look tight and short on chances, for different reasons. Azerbaijan and Lithuania meet again only eight days after a cagey 1-1, and neither side creates much. In Gijon, the home side are down to two fit first-team attackers against a Celta B team that has been a much tighter side on the road.
Start with the Nations League game. In the first meeting both teams had nine shots and it finished level. Over their last ten games, both sides average around 0.8 xG. Azerbaijan pushed hard at home against Liechtenstein, with 74% of the ball and 25 shots, and still couldn't score. Lithuania are a better-organised opponent than that.
The group table matters too. Lithuania are two points clear, so a draw suits them fine and they have no reason to open up. Both squads are also on their fourth match since late September.
Now Gijon. Their home games have been low-event all season: 0-0 with Sabadell, 1-0 against Burgos, then defeats to Girona and Eldense. That's one home goal in four league games. The squad has since been hollowed out. Iosifov was hurt in the derby at Oviedo and Gelabert was sent off there. Otero took a knock in the same game, and Nacho Martín has a knee problem. Ferrari, Konrad and Bruno Rubio were already out, and local press report that only Gaspar Campos and Antonio Casas remain as first-team attackers. Youth players have been called up to fill the squad.
Celta B are a strange side. At home their games have been wild (4-2, 0-4, 1-2), but away they've been far more careful: 0-0 at Cádiz, 2-0 at Ceuta, 0-2 at Almería. They're also without Burcio, who has been kept with the first team.
So in both games I see two sides who either can't or won't open the match up, and that's what this slip is built on.
