[2026 UEFA Nations League] Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: Match Preview Kick-off: October 4, 22:00 KST
Azerbaijan and Lithuania meet in Baku on October 4 at 22:00 KST in UEFA Nations League League D, Group 2. The sides drew 1-1 in Kaunas seven days ago and now face each other again at a different venue. Lithuania will stay top with a draw, while Azerbaijan need a win to move into first place.
1. Match overview and team form
Team Lithuania: Played 2 / Points (goal difference) 4 (3-1) Azerbaijan: Played 2 / Points (goal difference) 2 (1-1) Liechtenstein: Played 2 / Points (goal difference) 1 (0-2)
Azerbaijan have drawn both of their matches in this competition. Lithuania beat Liechtenstein 2-0 before drawing with Azerbaijan, so they are still unbeaten. This is a contest for top spot, but neither manager has talked about settling for a draw. Azerbaijan coach Aykhan Abbasov said he wants to finish first and improve the team’s ranking, while Lithuania coach Edgaras Jankauskas and captain Justas Lasickas have also said they will play to win. If the score is level late on, though, the points situation could shape how the two sides approach the closing minutes.
Azerbaijan drew 0-0 at home with Liechtenstein three days ago. They had 74% possession, 25 shots and 16 attempts inside the box, but only five shots on target and no goals. Fifteen shots missed the target and five were blocked. Abbasov admitted that the team’s failure to take its chances has been a recurring problem since the Malta match. Azerbaijan can keep the ball and work shots, but turning those chances into goals is another matter.
Lithuania also went into half-time at 0-0 away to Liechtenstein. Lukas Mehelbrink scored the opener in the 53rd minute, and substitute Artur Dolzhnikov added a second in the 66th. Lithuania then beat Andorra 3-0 in a friendly despite changing all 11 starters from the first Azerbaijan match. Most of those first-match starters either played no part or logged no more than 45 minutes. By contrast, five players expected to start for Azerbaijan today played the full 90 against Liechtenstein. That makes fitness and second-half substitutions worth watching.
Recent goal records alone do not tell us much about either attack. Each side has played only two Nations League matches. Azerbaijan created chances on level terms with Lithuania in Kaunas, then failed to score despite taking plenty of shots against Liechtenstein. Lithuania have converted their chances into three goals in this competition, but could not add to their penalty against a back five in the first meeting. The defensive shape they face today matters more than the recent results when assessing their attacking prospects.
Azerbaijan have some uncertainty up front. Renat Dadashov started the first match and played 60 minutes, but missed the Liechtenstein game through injury and remains a doubt for today. In his absence, Musa Gurbanli led the line while Mahir Emreli played behind him. Gurbanli had three shots before coming off in the 59th minute but did not score. If Dadashov is unavailable again, Abbasov will have to choose between starting Gurbanli and moving Emreli forward. Emreli scored the equaliser in the first meeting and led Azerbaijan with eight shots against Liechtenstein, making him a central figure in the attack.
Lithuania are without right-back Pijus Širvys and midfielder Vaidotas Magdušauskas. Neither played in the first meeting, so these are not new gaps in the side. Adrian Liukunas filled in for Širvys at right wing-back and made his international debut there. Jankauskas praised his ability to beat a man and deliver crosses, so Lithuania could use the same combination again.
The most relevant recent meeting is the 1-1 draw seven days ago. The teams also played out a 0-0 friendly in Baku in 2019, but the managers and squads have changed since then, making that match a poor guide to today’s tactics. This game will be played at a venue in Baku’s 8th km district, rather than the stadium where Azerbaijan hosted Liechtenstein. Lithuania have already had one training session there. Baku had prolonged rain the day before, and similar weather was forecast for matchday, but it is difficult to say which side will benefit from the conditions at kick-off.
2. Matchup analysis
In the first meeting in Kaunas, Abbasov started with a 5-4-1 and five defenders, while Jankauskas opted for a 3-4-3. Lithuania went ahead through Armandas Kučys’s penalty in the 9th minute, but Emreli equalised five minutes later. The penalty came after a foul by Azerbaijan in the box, while the equaliser followed a handling error by Lithuania goalkeeper Žygimantas Bartkus. Neither side scored again.
Azerbaijan had six shots inside the box to Lithuania’s four. Starting with five defenders did not stop them from getting forward. Lithuania won the aerial duel 21-9, but did not win a corner. Jankauskas acknowledged that their plan to use crosses to attack the box had not worked. Even when Lithuania won the ball, they lacked the final pass to find a teammate in the heart of Azerbaijan’s defence.
The matchup could look different depending on Abbasov’s starting shape. He used a 5-4-1 in Kaunas, but went with four defenders and more players behind the striker at home against Liechtenstein. A back five gives Azerbaijan a basis for dealing with Lithuania’s crosses again, but it leaves fewer players available to support Emreli up front. Starting with four defenders and pushing the full-backs higher would add attacking options, while giving Lithuania space to attack behind them when Azerbaijan lose the ball.
Lithuania look to attack quickly after winning the ball. They attempted 67 long passes in the first meeting and came out on top in aerial duels. But with Azerbaijan keeping numbers back, those forward moves did not lead to enough shots inside the box. The picture changes if Azerbaijan push their full-backs and midfielders forward in search of a win. Liukunas could take on his marker out wide, while Kučys and Dolzhnikov may find more room to receive the ball up front.
Azerbaijan also have ways to test Lithuania’s defence. They created six shots inside the box with a limited number of attackers in the first meeting, and Emreli scored. If Lithuania’s wing-backs push on, Azerbaijan could find Emreli in the space they leave behind. The question is whether Azerbaijan can finish their chances cleanly. As against Liechtenstein, rushing shots would leave them with attacking volume but no goals. Dadashov’s availability and the position Emreli takes up could change the kind of shooting chances Azerbaijan create.
In the second half, substitutions will matter alongside the players’ recent minutes. Abbasov made changes at half-time and around the 60-minute mark in recent matches. If the game is still level, he may need to bring on more attackers this time. Emreli and midfielder Abdellah Hajiyev could be competing again after playing 90 minutes three days ago. Many of Lithuania’s first-match starters had limited minutes against Andorra, and Jankauskas also has Dolzhnikov, who came off the bench to score against Liechtenstein. The difference in rest does not guarantee Lithuania will dominate late on, but it could matter if Azerbaijan commit more players forward.
The first goal would change the calculation. If Azerbaijan take the lead through an Emreli shot or a Toral Bayramov free-kick, they may not need to add attackers in a hurry. Lithuania would then have to find the final pass against a back five, as they did in the first meeting. If Lithuania score first, Azerbaijan cannot move into top spot with a draw alone. The more players Abbasov sends forward, the more chances Lithuania may have to attack again. Rain could also affect passing and goalkeeping if it leaves the pitch wet, but we do not have enough reason to say it will favour either side’s scoring chances.
3. Prediction and conclusion
We expect a 0-2 or 0-1 result from Azerbaijan’s perspective, with Lithuania winning by two goals the more likely outcome. Early on, a back five could again limit Lithuania’s crosses, while Azerbaijan may struggle to score with fewer players committed forward. If the game is still level after 60 minutes, we expect Abbasov to add attackers because his side need a win. That could let Lithuania win the ball, break forward and score first. If Azerbaijan fall behind and push their full-backs and midfielders higher, Lithuania could find a chance to add a second.
Azerbaijan’s need to win could shape Abbasov’s decisions in the second half. Lithuania’s quick transitions from the first meeting could become more dangerous when the home side push players forward. Azerbaijan’s key attackers and midfielders also played 90 minutes three days ago, while many of Lithuania’s first-match starters had limited time against Andorra. We expect Lithuania to make the most of those conditions late in the game.
The market gives Azerbaijan a slight edge on the strength of the evenly matched first game and home advantage. Compared with the match in Kaunas, though, the side that needs to commit attackers first has changed, and Lithuania have had a better rest schedule for their regular starters. We give more weight to how that could open up space and create chances to break forward in the second half. Our outlook would change if Azerbaijan keep their rested defenders in place, avoid adding attackers even if the score is level, and wait for set pieces. In that case, Lithuania may not find the space for counterattacks.
