Azerbaijan against Lithuania is a rematch of a 1-1 draw a week ago, and the numbers from the two sides' other games suggest that draw tells you less than it seems. Azerbaijan turned a game against Liechtenstein into 25 shots and still drew 0-0, while Lithuania needed 16 shots to win 2-0 at Liechtenstein. What I'd watch in this match is whether Lithuania let Azerbaijan have the ball the way Liechtenstein did, because the one time these two met, Azerbaijan did not get that kind of game.
Start with the rematch itself. Lithuania went ahead from a penalty in the ninth minute, Azerbaijan equalised five minutes later, and shots finished 9-9. Lithuania's expected goals were 1.26, but 1.00 of that came in the first half, which includes the penalty; in the second half it was 0.27 for Lithuania and 0.58 for Azerbaijan. So the draw was decided early and then the game went quiet, with Azerbaijan the slightly more dangerous side once it settled.
Now the Liechtenstein games. Azerbaijan had 74% possession, 25 shots (16 from inside the box) and about 2.1 expected goals at home, yet only five shots were on target and 15 went off target. Liechtenstein had no shot on target at all and 0.13 xG. Lithuania's win in Liechtenstein looked different: 72% possession, 16 shots, 7 on target, about 1.4 xG, but the score was 0-0 at half-time and the goals came after the break, in the 53rd and 66th minutes. Lithuania then beat Andorra 3-0 in a friendly, so they arrive unbeaten in the recent run while Azerbaijan have scored twice in their last three games.
What I can't tell from the data is how much the squad rotation matters. Azerbaijan have had about three days since the Liechtenstein game and Lithuania about four since Andorra, so neither has much room to change things, and no confirmed absences are recorded for either side. If this stays a game where the home side has the ball but can't get shots on target, the first goal (who gets it and how) will matter more than the possession split, and the earlier match showed how quickly that can change.
Sources: operations DB team stats and head-to-head records for both sides, and the match data page.
