Toronto arrives with a huge opening margin, but that number came from a very specific game. Chicago gave the ball away 27 times and made 4 of 36 threes, and Washington plays a different way. Washington's half-court offence runs through free throws and interior finishing, and that meets the one column Toronto has leaked in every game so far. This looks like a game decided by a few possessions, not a repeat blowout.
Washington won its opener by 12 without Dybantsa, using the same rotation it will use here. Davis scored 34 on 14 free-throw attempts, Young drew 16 more, and the team turned it over only 13 times. Washington also won the fourth quarter 38-23. Dybantsa's absence was already part of that result, so it is not a new hole.
The key matchup is Toronto's pressure against Washington's ball security. Toronto had 15 steals in its opener, and in preseason Washington coughed it up 20 to 27 times a game. If that flood comes back, Toronto can run away in the third quarter. But those preseason games came with other units on the floor. With Young and Davis handling the ball, the opener showed a team that protects possessions.
On the other end, Toronto allowed between 27 and 47 free-throw attempts in every game it has played. Washington lives at the line. Leonard is on managed minutes, so Toronto's bench groups will be on the floor in stretches of a close game.
Toronto still has real edges: depth, pressure and a clear gap in three-point shooting, since Washington made only 6 of 28 in its opener. Added up in points, that gives Toronto a modest win, not a double-digit one. That's why I'm siding with Washington to keep this close at home.
