[2026-27 Dutch Eredivisie] ADO Den Haag vs SC Heerenveen preview and analysis Kick-off: October 24, 19:00 UTC
ADO Den Haag and SC Heerenveen meet at the WerkTalent Stadium in The Hague. The promoted side finally picked up its first win of the season and needs points to climb out of the relegation zone, while ninth-placed Heerenveen will look to carry its recent big win into this away match. The key question is what chances the visitors can create if the hosts sit back and defend.
1. Match overview and team form
ADO Den Haag went eight matches without a win after returning to the Eredivisie, then beat PSV 2-1 at home on October 17. The data centre table dated October 24 has them 16th with 6 points from 9 matches: 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses. The club says they are 3 points behind 13th place. Heerenveen are ninth with 12 points from 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The hosts have a chance to add to their tally in the relegation battle after their first win, while the visitors can move up the table from mid-table.
Eredivisie this season Record after 9 matches: ADO Den Haag 1 win, 3 draws, 5 losses / Heerenveen 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses Goals for and against: ADO Den Haag 11 and 20 / Heerenveen 15 and 11 Record in the same venue split: ADO Den Haag at home 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses / Heerenveen away 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss
ADO Den Haag's win over PSV came after the visitors were reduced to 10 men in the 43rd minute. Robin Peter made three changes at half-time to add attacking options, and his side scored an equaliser and the winner after the break. Before that, ADO drew 2-2 away to Telstar after going down to 10 men in the 13th minute. Their three-match unbeaten run reflects how they adapted to changing circumstances during games, but it is hard to take it as evidence that their attack and defence have both improved in normal 11-v-11 conditions.
A different problem has emerged when they have had more of the ball at home. They conceded after playing out from the back against Groningen and Fortuna Sittard. Against SC Cambuur, they had 18 shots, including 14 from inside the box, but drew 1-1 (data centre). Away to Feyenoord, by contrast, they defended under pressure and scored twice first through counterattacks and loose balls. That is one reason we cannot assume ADO Den Haag will try to dominate possession at home this time.
Heerenveen won 4-0 away to Sparta Rotterdam and by the same score at home against Excelsior. Still, 8 of their 15 league goals have come in those two matches. Against Sparta, they scored first in the 28th minute, then punished turnovers and the space left as the hosts pushed for an equaliser. They also took the lead against Excelsior with an 11th-minute penalty before extending it on the counter. At home, they failed to score against both PEC Zwolle and Telstar, who sat deeper. The visitors' low goals-against tally and recent big wins are strengths, but if ADO Den Haag defend deep, Heerenveen will need a different approach from the one that brought those 4-0 results.
Team ADO Den Haag: Availability: Luka Reischl and Donat Barani are out; Milan Hokke returns from suspension. What that changes: fewer attacking options off the bench in the second half, but more choices in defence. Heerenveen: Availability: Levi Smans and Dirk Proper are out; Ringo Meerveld replaces Smans. What that changes: other players will need to provide the runs and through balls from the attacking midfield line.
Smans has 3 assists in 342 minutes this season (data centre). His pass in behind also set up the opener against Sparta. Meerveld can shoot himself or make runs from the attacking midfield line, but there is little to suggest he will supply the final pass in the same way as Smans. For ADO Den Haag, Barani came off the bench against SC Cambuur and scored the equaliser. The impact of both absences may be most apparent if Peter needs to add attacking players in the second half.
Older head-to-head records tell us little about today's tactics. PortMob's all-time tally has ADO Den Haag with 4 wins, 9 draws and Heerenveen with 9 wins, while the visitors are unbeaten in their last 11 meetings. But the sides have not met in the league in the past five years, so it is difficult to apply that record directly to the current coaches and squads.
The weather is a factor for both teams. Open-Meteo's forecast dated October 24 calls for rain and gusts of 71.6 km/h at 21:00 local kick-off. Rainfall and gusts are expected to intensify later in the match. Both teams have had a week off since their last league fixture, seven days for ADO Den Haag and eight for Heerenveen, and have cup matches in midweek next week. Neither coach has announced plans to rotate.
2. Match-up analysis
Peter said that against teams comfortable in possession, his side need to focus first on pressing and defensive duties (FeanOnline, October 23). ADO Den Haag have used a back five against Twente and PSV, and defended under pressure before counterattacking away to Feyenoord. The starting shape has not been announced, but the hosts may well give up the ball and set up defensively first. Even if Heerenveen enjoy long spells of possession, the conditions may make clear chances hard to come by.
Under Robin Veldman, Heerenveen have recently started in a 4-2-3-1, linking the attacking midfielders with advancing full-backs. On the right, Jacob Trenskow can move inside while Oliver Braude pushes forward. Trenskow scored against Sparta after the hosts lost the ball near halfway, cutting in from the right, and Braude joined a counterattack to score against Excelsior. If ADO Den Haag defend deep with their full-backs in position, they can limit the space those two find.
Heerenveen's ability to break through centrally matters too. Meerveld will take Smans' place, though his exact position has not been confirmed. If he shoots from the attacking midfield line, someone else will need to provide the passes in behind that Smans supplied. If Heerenveen opt for safe passes out wide early, ADO Den Haag will have time to restore their defensive shape. That links to captain Maas Willemsen's comment after the PEC Zwolle match that they give opponents time to drop back (Omrop Fryslân, August 23). Still, Smans' absence alone is no reason to expect Heerenveen to struggle against a compact defence. He played in the 0-0 draw with Telstar.
When ADO Den Haag win the ball, they will look to attack the space on the opposite side. Heerenveen can send their full-backs high to join the press. If the hosts play through that pressure, Yūgo Kilo can pass into the space behind a full-back, with Evan Rottier moving forward to continue the attack. Rottier has 2 goals and 4 assists in 9 matches this season. Jesse Bal and Yannick Eduardo can also compete for the ball in front of goal. But Kilo's passes over the top against PSV came mainly after the visitors had gone down to 10 men. We cannot assume ADO Den Haag will reproduce those moves in an 11-v-11 match.
If Heerenveen's press works, ADO Den Haag will be in greater danger. The hosts conceded after mistakes playing the ball in their own half against Groningen and Fortuna Sittard. If they lose possession while trying to play short through the press, Trenskow and Maxence Rivera could attack from close range. Heerenveen can also target space behind the defence if ADO Den Haag push more players forward after conceding first. Marco Parsi and Luca Oyen both contributed to goals as substitutes against Sparta, so the visitors have options to carry that threat into the second half.
How both teams manage the game after the first goal will be a test. Heerenveen have won 2 of the 3 matches in which they scored first this season, scoring 10 goals in total (data centre). If their opponents push forward to get back into the match, the visitors' transition game could be effective. ADO Den Haag, meanwhile, failed to protect a two-goal lead away to Feyenoord and a one-goal lead away to Telstar. Even if the hosts score first, they may have to withstand Heerenveen's second-half pressure for a long time if they drop deep without finding a way to play the ball forward. Those examples were both away matches, and Telstar also had a red card, so we cannot assume the same will happen here.
If the rain and gusts pick up as forecast, both teams will have tougher decisions to make. ADO Den Haag's lofted and long passes, along with Heerenveen's crosses from wide areas, may lose accuracy. In that case, possession alone may not keep producing good chances. Set pieces and second balls in front of goal could become more important. ADO Den Haag scored in a scramble after a corner against SC Cambuur, and both goalkeepers have conceded this season after failing to deal with the ball cleanly. There is no reason to think the weather will favour only one side.
3. Verdict and prediction
We expect a close game, with ADO Den Haag prioritising their defensive duties and Heerenveen having more of the ball. The visitors have conceded few goals this season, and several players have scored when opponents have pushed forward. But if the hosts sit back, Heerenveen will have less space behind the defence than they found in their two recent 4-0 wins. With Smans out, the player who supplied those runs in behind will be missing, and the forecast gusts could hinder both the visitors' wide attacks and ADO Den Haag's long passes.
The overseas market appears to favour Heerenveen on the strength of their points tally, defensive record and two recent big wins. Those results are real, but the early opening goal and the opposition pushing forward were part of the picture. If Peter follows through on his stated defensive approach, Heerenveen will have to attack in different spaces. That is why we give the draw and a low-scoring game more weight than the market does.
Our predicted score is ADO Den Haag 1-1 Heerenveen. The hosts could score by winning a duel and countering or from a set piece, but after taking the lead they would still have to deal with Heerenveen's second-half pressure and attacking substitutes. The visitors are also more likely to find one goal than to keep finishing chances repeatedly against a deep defence in wind and rain. An early Heerenveen goal is the condition that would change this outlook. If ADO Den Haag lose the ball and concede first in the opening half, they will have to push forward with fewer attacking substitutes available, giving Heerenveen space to look for another.
