[2026 MLS] Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC: Match Preview Kick-off: October 24, 19:30 UTC
Columbus Crew host Toronto FC at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field at 19:30 UTC on October 24. With four regular-season games remaining, both teams are chasing the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They are separated by one point, and how they manage the game after the opening goal, along with their fitness late on, could decide the result.
1. Match overview and team form
Columbus Crew sit 11th in the East, with Toronto FC 10th. Toronto FC are level on 36 points with ninth-placed New York Red Bulls but trail on wins. Columbus Crew are one point back on 35. Both sides need a win, but Toronto FC have the tougher schedule: three of their remaining four games are away, and their final opponent is Philadelphia Union. Columbus Crew, meanwhile, are dealing with the aftermath of the US Open Cup final at home three days ago. They lost the title after extra time and a penalty shootout, and now face a direct league rival.
East position and points: Columbus Crew, 11th, 35 points / Toronto FC, 10th, 36 points League record after 30 games: Columbus Crew, 10 wins, 5 draws, 15 losses / Toronto FC, 8 wins, 12 draws, 10 losses Goals scored and conceded: Columbus Crew, 46 and 47 / Toronto FC, 46 and 55
Both teams have scored 46 goals in 30 league games. Columbus Crew have conceded eight fewer, but have five more losses. Toronto FC have picked up points through 12 draws. Season-long numbers alone do not tell us how strong Columbus Crew are in attack right now. They won three, drew one and lost seven of interim head coach Laurent Courtois' first 11 games, but have won four and lost one of their five league matches since September 20. Diego Rossi left in the summer, while Bryce Mendes and Santiago Rodríguez arrived among others. Courtois has given Taha Habroune a free role in midfield. Those players have repeatedly been involved in the passing moves and runs behind the defence that have led to recent goals.
Columbus Crew's recovery has also been backed by the chances they have created at home. They beat Charlotte FC 3-1 after taking 33 shots, then edged Inter Miami 2-1 with a stoppage-time winner. Their previous league match, away to FC Cincinnati, was a different story: they were outshot 23-3 but still won 2-0. In the cup final that followed, they had 19 attempts against St. Louis City but managed only two shots on target. Possession or a win alone does not guarantee that they will create enough chances today.
Toronto FC have also turned a corner, going unbeaten in their last three games with two wins and a draw. They came from behind against CF Montréal thanks to goals from substitutes in stoppage time, then drew 3-3 with Orlando City after taking the lead twice. Away to New York Red Bulls, they went ahead through a third-minute own goal, then held on for a 2-0 win as their wingers tracked back to defend. It was their first clean sheet after 13 straight games conceding. But Kobe Franklin and Nickseon Gomis, who played in that match, are unavailable this time. Toronto FC's last 11 away games have brought two wins, three draws, six losses and nine goals scored. Whether they can defend a lead as they did against New York Red Bulls is a different question if the game is still 0-0.
Toronto FC's absences and returns are concentrated in defence. Walker Zimmerman and Franklin are out injured, Nelson Palacio has ended his season, and Gomis is also listed as unavailable. Richie Laryea and Benjamin Kuscevic return from suspension. The likely back line of Laryea, Zane Monlouis, Kuscevic and Matheus Pereira conceded three against Orlando City. Zimmerman's absence matters in central defence and on attacking set pieces. For Columbus Crew, Wessam Abou Ali is out with a long-term injury, while the availability of Habroune, a key figure in their recent attack, is uncertain. He is listed as a doubt but started the cup final three days ago.
Toronto FC came from behind to win 2-1 in the teams' meeting in March. In the three matchups since Robin Fraser took charge, Columbus Crew scored first within 16 minutes each time but never added a second goal, and Toronto FC drew level every time. The Columbus Crew scorers from those games are all unavailable now, and both the coaching staff and squad have changed. Rather than carry over those past results, we should look at how Toronto FC responded when trailing, using runs through the middle and a high press to get back into the game.
2. Matchup analysis
Under interim head coach Courtois, Columbus Crew push both wing-backs high from a back three. If Brooks Lennon advances on the left while Rodríguez moves between the flank and the middle, Richie Laryea could struggle to contain both on his own. If Theo Corbeanu drops back to help with Lennon, Toronto FC can even the numbers, but Corbeanu then has a long way to go to reach the opposition goal after a turnover. Leaving him high would make Toronto FC's counterattacks quicker, while putting more defensive responsibility on Laryea. That choice also affects their attack, as Toronto FC have often built their recent low crosses from Corbeanu's right side.
Toronto FC could use the same approach as against New York Red Bulls when Columbus Crew attack down the flanks, with their wingers dropping deep to defend. In that game, they allowed the opposition 66% possession and 15 shots, but few attempts came from good positions. The back line is different this time, though. Toronto FC conceded twice in quick succession in the 77th and 83rd minutes against Orlando City after the pressure intensified. If Columbus Crew combine Lennon's runs with Rodríguez's movement to keep the defence shifting, the new Toronto FC back line will be tested on its ability to cover the flank and the middle together. If Toronto FC block shots in front of the penalty area, Columbus Crew could struggle to turn their attacks into shots on target, as they did in the cup final.
Habroune's availability is key in midfield. He has started moves in the middle, moved into the box to score and played the final pass for Mendes. If Niklas Dorsch and Jonathan Osorio track those runs, they can help stop Columbus Crew's attacks through the middle. But that would also take them away from positions where they could launch a counter as soon as they win the ball. Toronto FC's second goal against New York Red Bulls began with Osorio clearing a corner, driving forward and passing to Daniel Sallói. If Habroune is out, Columbus Crew may rely more on crosses from the wing-backs and set pieces from Mendes, giving Toronto FC's central midfielders more room to prepare for counterattacks.
Set pieces are another route Columbus Crew can target. Their opener against FC Cincinnati came from a Mendes corner, headed in by Gonzalo Tapia. Toronto FC have conceded an average of 6.1 corners per away game across their last 10 on the road, and now have to defend aerial balls without Zimmerman in the middle. Corner counts alone do not make a goal likely. If Toronto FC drop their wingers back to defend, Columbus Crew may have more time to attack from wide areas, but they still need their crosses and shots to get through the defence.
When Toronto FC win the ball, they can target the space behind Columbus Crew's left flank. If the Crew lose possession after Lennon has pushed forward, Corbeanu and Laryea can attack that space. Columbus Crew conceded a late winner away to Orlando City after a shot of theirs was blocked and the opposition broke. Fraser has also used a high press against Columbus Crew to disrupt their build-up. Toronto FC therefore cannot be expected to sit deep from the outset. Pressing high could force mistakes in the Crew's build-up, but if Columbus play through the press, Toronto FC will leave space behind their defence.
As the game wears on, the difference in rest could come into play. Columbus Crew wide players Lennon and Andrés Herrera did not start the cup final. But centre-backs Steven Moreira, Sean Zawadzki and Malte Amundsen, along with Habroune, Mendes and Rodríguez, started both the FC Cincinnati match and the cup final. The main options they could bring off the bench also started the final. Toronto FC have had a week off since playing New York Red Bulls. If Columbus Crew score first and retreat into their own half, Toronto FC will have time to try passes through the middle. If the game stays level and Columbus push their wing-backs higher, Toronto FC will have space to counter. Still, Toronto FC have lost by at least two goals in all three of their recent away games in which they conceded first. To take advantage of the fitness gap late on, they need to keep the score close in the first half.
3. Verdict and prediction
We expect Columbus Crew to score first in the opening half, with Toronto FC hitting back after the break. Columbus Crew's wide players, who were rested for the final, could drive their wing-back attacks early, while Toronto FC's defence will also have to deal with Mendes' corners without Zimmerman. But if Columbus retreat after taking the lead, Toronto FC will have time to play passes through the middle. In all three matchups under Fraser, Toronto FC conceded first and then equalised. Columbus Crew's central players and key substitutes also started the final three days ago, which could make it harder to add a second goal or hold onto a lead late on.
The market rates Columbus Crew's chances of winning highly, pointing to their four wins in their last five league games and Toronto FC's poor away form. Toronto FC's low scoring on the road and defensive absences are valid concerns today. However, Columbus Crew's recent win over FC Cincinnati came despite allowing plenty of shots, and fatigue from the cup final could affect their substitutions and how they manage a lead in the second half. We give Columbus Crew a good chance of scoring first, but rate their chances of seeing out a win below the market's estimate.
Our predicted score is Columbus Crew 1-1 Toronto FC. Columbus Crew could take the lead through a wide attack or a set piece, then Toronto FC could equalise after the break with a run through the middle and protect their point away from home. This prediction depends on Toronto FC being able to create a goal against a Columbus Crew side that has dropped back. If Toronto FC again struggle to create enough away chances, Columbus Crew are likely to win 1-0.
