[2026 MLS] New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami (MLS): Preview and analysis Kick-off: October 24, 21:30 UTC
New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami (MLS) meet in the MLS regular season at 21:30 UTC on October 24. New York Red Bulls are on the playoff line and need points at home. Inter Miami (MLS) have already secured a playoff place, but still have a second-place finish in the Eastern Conference to chase. Inter Miami (MLS) have the stronger attack, though New York Red Bulls have ways to get at their defense.
1. Match overview and team form
The match will be played at Sports Illustrated Stadium in Harrison, New Jersey. Both teams have four regular-season games left, including this one. New York Red Bulls are ninth in the Eastern Conference on 36 points, level with 10th-placed Toronto FC. A loss could send them below the playoff line. Inter Miami (MLS) are second on 55 points, three ahead of third-placed New England Revolution. Securing a playoff place has not ended their fight for position.
After 30 regular-season matches Record: New York Red Bulls 10 wins, 6 draws, 14 losses / Inter Miami (MLS) 15 wins, 10 draws, 5 losses Points: New York Red Bulls 36 / Inter Miami (MLS) 55 Goals for and against: New York Red Bulls 39 and 56 / Inter Miami (MLS) 73 and 51
The standings on the data center’s October 24 update show Inter Miami (MLS)’s 73 goals are the most in the league. Lionel Messi leads the scoring chart with 25. Inter Miami (MLS) have also conceded 51, the most among the Eastern Conference’s top six. New York Red Bulls have scored less and conceded more. They have conceded in each of their last 11 home games and failed to score in five of them. Inter Miami (MLS) have scored in each of their last eight away games, but conceded 15 goals over that stretch. The numbers show the home side’s attacking burden and the visitors’ defensive vulnerability.
New York Red Bulls’ recent struggles cannot be explained by a lack of chances alone. They managed an expected goals figure of 2.94 away to DC United on October 15 but scored just once. Against Toronto FC at home on October 18, they had 67.7% possession and 15 shots, yet their expected goals total was only 0.94. They have both wasted chances and struggled to create good ones despite having plenty of the ball. Earlier, they scored four against San Diego FC on October 11 with around 43% possession. Ronald Donkor’s forward passing, Jorge Ruvalcaba’s work out wide, Julián Hall’s finishing and a corner all led to goals.
The start of matches has been a problem in their recent defeats. New York Red Bulls conceded inside the opening five minutes in all three losses to St. Louis City SC, DC United and Toronto FC. The goals came from a set-piece header, a penalty and an own goal. They then pushed forward with more attackers in search of an equalizer, and against Toronto FC, a counterattack after a cleared corner led to another goal against them. By contrast, they won 1-0 away to Columbus Crew and New York City FC in September. Their game management looked different when they avoided conceding first and kept their defensive shape.
Inter Miami (MLS) have three wins, one draw and one loss in five league matches since Gonzalez took over on September 16. All nine goals in their three straight wins since the World Cup break came from open play, with Messi, Luis Suárez and Germán Berterame combining to set up and finish attacks. Those three wins came against teams currently 12th to 14th in the East, though, and Inter Miami (MLS) conceded 20 shots in a 3-1 win away to Atlanta United FC in their previous match. Their attack has changed, but there is little to show that the defense has settled too.
Inter Miami (MLS) have won three and drawn one of the last four meetings between the teams. However, their heavy wins over New York Red Bulls in 2025 came before Michael Bradley took charge. In April this year, under Bradley, New York Red Bulls scored first on a counterattack led by Hall and equalized from a second-half set piece in a 2-2 draw away from home. Mateo Silvetti, who scored Inter Miami (MLS)’s equalizer, has since suffered a season-ending injury. Inter Miami (MLS) have also changed their coach and attacking lineup since then, so the scoring patterns from the April match offer a closer guide to this meeting than the earlier big wins.
Team news Lionel Messi: Expected to return after attending an awards ceremony in Spain. Whether he starts and how long he plays will shape Inter Miami (MLS)’s attack. Yannick Bright: Reportedly unavailable with foot pain. David Ayala is expected to replace him at defensive midfield. Tadeo Allende and Mateo Silvetti: Out with injuries for the rest of the season. Inter Miami (MLS) will have fewer wide attacking options off the bench. Marcucci: Recovering from a torn ACL. His absence is unlikely to affect starting goalkeeper Ethan Horvath’s place.
Messi attended an awards ceremony in Oviedo, Spain, on October 23. Gonzalez said he plans to use him against New York Red Bulls, but has not decided how many minutes Messi will play after a transatlantic trip. Both teams played their previous match on October 18 and have their next one on the 29th. Messi’s travel and how he is used during the match are bigger variables than the teams’ schedules.
2. Matchup analysis
We expect Inter Miami (MLS) to have more of the ball, with New York Red Bulls looking to move forward after winning it back. Over their last 10 league games, Inter Miami (MLS) have averaged 56.5% possession, while New York Red Bulls have averaged 49.0% at home. New York Red Bulls scored after winning the ball and sending Hall forward quickly against San Diego FC and in the April meeting. Where Inter Miami (MLS) lose the ball will directly affect how far New York Red Bulls have to go on the counter.
New York Red Bulls will look to attack down the right through Hall and Donkor. If Inter Miami (MLS)’s left back, Sergio Reguilón, has pushed forward, Hall can run into the space behind him. Center back Casemiro may have to move across, or Ayala may need to drop back to cover. In Gonzalez’s first match, against San Diego FC, Anders Dreyer scored twice after receiving passes in behind the defense. New York Red Bulls have Hall and Ruvalcaba who can look for similar runs, but recent matches offer little evidence that they have regularly threatened the space behind the defense with a single long pass, as San Diego FC did. This matchup will matter if Hall’s runs and Donkor’s link-up lead to real chances.
Inter Miami (MLS)’s main attacking pattern sees Messi move inside from the right and combine with Suárez and Berterame. New York Red Bulls left back Devin Padelford has played 463 minutes this season, but started the last four matches in a row. If he follows Messi inside while an opponent advances down the flank, Cade Cowell may also need to help defend. If Cowell spends too much time tracking back, New York Red Bulls will have fewer players to launch counters down the left. It will also matter how well Donkor and Adri Mehmeti disrupt the link between Rodrigo De Paul and Ayala before they can feed Messi. Gonzalez has said that Messi dropping deep to get the ball is a sign that the attack is not flowing smoothly.
Fouls in midfield could open up another route to goal. New York Red Bulls conceded a penalty after a foul by Mehmeti inside five minutes against DC United. Messi scored direct free kicks against San Diego FC and Columbus Crew recently. Inter Miami (MLS) may not have won many corners lately, but a free kick near the box gives them a chance to threaten regardless of how their open-play attack is going. New York Red Bulls will need to disrupt their passing and avoid fouls in dangerous areas.
At the other end, New York Red Bulls are dangerous from set pieces. They have averaged 6.6 corners over their last five matches, compared with Inter Miami (MLS)’s 2.6. Padelford scored with a header from a Cowell corner against San Diego FC, and Mehmeti scored an equalizer from a set piece in the April meeting. But if defenders push forward for a corner and cannot get back quickly after losing the ball, Messi and Suárez can counter. Toronto FC’s late goal against New York Red Bulls came just 14 seconds after a corner had been cleared. That is how the same corner can be a scoring chance for New York Red Bulls and a risk of conceding.
The starting lineups and substitutions can also change how each team attacks. Bradley has kept most of his young starters over the last three matches, and brought on Emil Forsberg and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting when New York Red Bulls were trailing against DC United and Toronto FC. Choupo-Moting has five goals in 575 minutes this season, while Forsberg can deliver set pieces. Adding a penalty-box striker and a set-piece taker when New York Red Bulls are chasing a game could leave fewer players available to win the ball in midfield. If Messi and Suárez are still on the field for Inter Miami (MLS), they could take advantage on the counter.
Gonzalez brought on defensive and midfield players after Inter Miami (MLS) went three goals up against Atlanta United FC. Against San Diego FC, his team slowed the game down after going 2-1 ahead, then conceded an equalizer. With wide attackers Allende and Silvetti out, Inter Miami (MLS) have fewer options to change their attack if they fall behind or are level. New York Red Bulls, meanwhile, can bring on Choupo-Moting and Forsberg in the second half. If Inter Miami (MLS) reach halftime one goal ahead, Gonzalez’s substitutions and New York Red Bulls’ corners could change the game again.
The halftime score offers a useful reference point for how the teams have managed recent matches. In their last 10 games, Inter Miami (MLS) turned five halftime leads into four wins and one draw, while New York Red Bulls lost five and drew one of six games in which they trailed at the break. New York Red Bulls, in contrast, have not lost any of the three games they were level at halftime. The halftime score itself does not cause the final result, and the opposition varied. Still, an early Inter Miami (MLS) lead that prompts New York Red Bulls to bring on attackers would create a different game from one in which the home side holds firm and uses its second-half options.
3. Verdict and prediction
If Messi starts and plays at least 70 minutes, we predict a 3-1 win for Inter Miami (MLS). They could score first through combinations between Messi, Suárez and Berterame or a free kick near the box, then extend their lead on the counter when New York Red Bulls bring on more attackers in the second half. New York Red Bulls could pull one back with a corner or a Choupo-Moting run into the box after Inter Miami (MLS) bring on defensive players. Inter Miami (MLS)’s recent attacks have involved several players in the final pass and finish, while New York Red Bulls have often conceded again when chasing a game. At the same time, New York Red Bulls’ set pieces worked against Inter Miami (MLS) in the April meeting.
The market has moved towards a wider Inter Miami (MLS) win. Their league-high goal total and New York Red Bulls’ recent defensive record point to an away advantage. However, Inter Miami (MLS)’s earlier big wins came before Bradley took charge, and they can bring on defensive reinforcements once ahead. Given the visitors’ limited attacking options off the bench and New York Red Bulls’ ability to introduce Choupo-Moting and Forsberg late on, we think a late goal for the home team is more likely.
Messi’s playing time is the condition that would change this forecast. If he starts on the bench or comes off early in the second half, Inter Miami (MLS) will have less time to use the player who provides the final pass in central combinations and takes direct free kicks. In that case, we predict a 1-1 draw, with each team scoring through its own route to goal. Gonzalez has said he intends to use Messi, so we favor 3-1, but the starting lineup and his actual minutes will determine whether that forecast still holds.
