[2026 MLS] FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Preview and Analysis Kickoff: October 25, 00:30 UTC
FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes meet at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, on October 25 in Round 31 of the 2026 MLS regular season. Both teams have secured playoff spots, but third-place FC Dallas are only three points ahead of fourth-place San Jose Earthquakes. This matchup could help decide who earns home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
1. Match overview and team form
After 30 regular-season matches Western Conference standings and points: FC Dallas, 3rd, 51 points / San Jose Earthquakes, 4th, 48 points W-D-L: FC Dallas 14-9-7 / San Jose Earthquakes 13-9-8 Goals for and against: FC Dallas 55-47 / San Jose Earthquakes 52-42
A win would put FC Dallas six points clear of San Jose Earthquakes, while a loss would leave the teams level on points. The standings alone do not tell the full story: FC Dallas have a goal difference of +8, compared with +10 for San Jose Earthquakes. With attacking options missing on both sides, who is available now matters more than each team's season-long goal total.
Petar Musa remains available for FC Dallas after scoring 20 goals in 26 appearances. He has accounted for about 36% of the team's 55 goals. Logan Farrington, who has 10 goals, is out with a lower-body injury, while Sam Sarver, a second-half option who has chipped in with goals, is suspended. San Jose Earthquakes will be without Preston Judd, who has scored 16 of the team's 52 goals, due to yellow-card accumulation. Timo Werner, who has recently partnered Judd up front, and Niko Tsakiris, the team's leader in corners and key passes, are also doubts.
Team FC Dallas: Logan Farrington and Sam Sarver / Pre-match status and role: out and suspended, respectively; the team's second-leading scorer and a second-half attacking option San Jose Earthquakes: Preston Judd / Pre-match status and role: suspended; the team's leading scorer and an aerial target on set pieces San Jose Earthquakes: Timo Werner and Niko Tsakiris / Pre-match status and role: doubts; their availability could affect the strike partnership and attacking build-up
Recent results show both teams' strengths and limitations. FC Dallas are 5-3-2 in their last 10 league matches and have kept three straight clean sheets at home. Their only goals across those three games came from two corners. A 1-0 win over Seattle Sounders required seven saves from goalkeeper Daniel. On the road, they led at halftime in their last two matches against Charlotte FC and Houston Dynamo but conceded in the second half and failed to win. Their home clean sheets and away struggles to protect a lead are both relevant here.
San Jose Earthquakes went through a four-game losing streak in August before coach Bruce Arena switched to a back three. They have since gone unbeaten in nine league matches, with three wins and six draws. Their average goals conceded dropped from 3.25 per game during the losing streak to one per game after the formation change. On the road, they have one win and four draws in five matches with that setup. Their 26 away points are the most in the Western Conference, but five of their seven road wins came before May 10. The current defensive shape has helped them avoid away defeats, though it has not produced many wins.
Their three straight 1-1 draws also need to be considered alongside Judd's absence. Against Nashville SC, Judd headed in the equalizer from Eduard Löwen's free kick. The stoppage-time equalizer against Real Salt Lake came after a ball from Judd deflected off a defender and looped up. Against Colorado Rapids, they conceded 10 shots on target but held on for a point thanks to nine saves from goalkeeper Earl Edwards Jr. San Jose Earthquakes' unbeaten run has relied on more than the defensive change: Edwards' saves and their ability to convert a limited number of chances have also mattered.
Both coaches use a back three, but their game plans differ. Eric Quill's FC Dallas have not had more possession than their opponents in any of their last 10 league matches. They have been comfortable conceding the ball, defending, then creating chances through wide play and set pieces. Bruce Arena's San Jose Earthquakes defend away from home with five players behind the ball and break forward quickly after regaining possession. Neither team usually looks to keep the ball for long spells.
The head-to-head record should also be viewed in light of the formations both teams use now. Across three matches under the current coaches, FC Dallas have one win, one draw and one loss, with goals after the 75th minute affecting the result each time. FC Dallas won 3-2 away to San Jose Earthquakes in May, but San Jose were not using their current five-man defense then. Sarver, who scored the winner in stoppage time, is also unavailable for this match. The goal count from that meeting is therefore a poor guide to how many we can expect today.
Both teams have had a week off since their last match and will play again four days after this one. FC Dallas begin a run of three matches in seven days, and Quill made several changes to his starting lineup during their last congested stretch. The starting lineup will tell us how much Osaze Urhoghide, Kaick and Joaquín Valiente, all involved in recent home corner goals, will play. San Jose Earthquakes may be able to keep their recent defensive and midfield starters, but Judd's suspension means they need to reshape the front line.
2. Matchup analysis
The early question is which team will have the ball. If San Jose Earthquakes defend deep and compact as they have on recent away trips, FC Dallas are likely to have more possession than usual. Dallas will need to play out wide from the back, then create chances for Musa with crosses or corners. San Jose will use five defenders to protect the penalty area and limit how often Musa can receive the ball centrally. FC Dallas' recent home clean sheets and wins came in matches where their opponents had the ball, so their ability to create attacks will matter more this time.
Musa will come up against the San Jose defense, including center back Daniel Munie. When Musa receives the ball centrally, nearby defenders can close him down, so FC Dallas need to deliver accurate balls from wide areas. Herman Johansson assisted Farrington's goal with a cross against Charlotte FC and set up Musa in the May meeting. San Jose were playing a back four then, though. Johansson's crosses will have to get through a penalty area packed with five defenders to reach Musa today. A second-line runner could find space while Musa draws defenders' attention, but with Farrington out, Dallas have fewer options to finish those chances.
If FC Dallas cannot find Musa in open play, set pieces will take on greater importance. Against LAFC, Urhoghide headed in a corner from Valiente. Against Seattle Sounders, Kaick finished after Urhoghide knocked down a corner. If all three are available, Dallas can look to repeat those recent home scoring patterns. San Jose Earthquakes have center backs such as Munie, Reid Roberts and Dave Romney who can defend in the box. The delivery and the player contesting the first ball could decide how effective those set pieces are.
San Jose Earthquakes can also use set pieces to trouble FC Dallas. Even if Tsakiris is unavailable, Löwen can take free kicks, and Munie and Roberts are among the defenders with scoring experience who can push forward. Judd's aerial threat will be missing, but San Jose will still have players to target. FC Dallas failed to clear a corner before Roberts scored in the May meeting, and they also conceded an equalizer from a set piece against Charlotte FC. San Jose may have fewer chances to carry the ball into Dallas' half and win set pieces if they spend long stretches defending.
Werner's availability matters when San Jose win the ball and break. If he plays, Earthquakes can keep their recent two-striker setup, with another forward joining Ousseni Bouda on the counter. If Werner is out, Arena has previously used Bouda as the lone striker. Houston Dynamo's 0-0 draw was the first match with that setup. San Jose can still play the ball into Bouda, but whether he can replace Judd's runs in behind and finishing from crosses at the same level is a separate question.
If FC Dallas push their defenders forward to keep possession, San Jose Earthquakes could counter into the space behind them. Once they win the ball, San Jose can look for Bouda quickly and make Dallas' back three retreat. Shaq Moore and Nolan Norris are each one booking away from a suspension for the next match. Still, it is uncertain how often San Jose's front line, without Judd, can turn those forward runs into scoring chances. That is why a projected possession edge for Dallas does not automatically mean more shots for Musa or more counterattacks for San Jose.
The team that scores first will shape the challenge for both coaches. If FC Dallas score first, San Jose Earthquakes will need to chase an equalizer, as they have in their last three matches, but Judd will not be there to help lead that comeback. If San Jose push their wide defenders forward while trailing, Dallas' second-line players could attack the space they leave. If San Jose score first, Dallas will need to keep the ball longer and break down a five-man defense. With Farrington and Sarver unavailable, Dallas' second-half changes are more likely to involve different runs or deliveries than adding another forward.
Even if the game remains scoreless late on, both teams still have set-piece takers. The goalkeepers could also be important. Daniel kept FC Dallas' 1-0 win over Seattle Sounders intact with seven saves, while San Jose Earthquakes drew against Colorado Rapids thanks to nine saves from Edwards Jr. In a match with few chances, one shot on target or one corner could produce the opening goal. Whichever team scores first will still have limited attacking options for adding another, while the trailing side will have fewer options to chase the game.
3. Final assessment and prediction
The likeliest scenario is that FC Dallas have more possession than usual and try to create chances with crosses and corners, while San Jose Earthquakes hold their five-man defensive shape and break quickly when they win the ball. Dallas have a reliable finisher in Musa, but getting the ball to him in central areas will be difficult. San Jose can keep using their current away setup, but Judd, who has been central to their recent comeback goals, is out. Both teams can look to score from a set piece, while each has fewer attacking options for a second goal.
The market gives FC Dallas more credit for their recent home clean sheets, Musa's scoring and the high-scoring result in the previous meeting. In those home games and that head-to-head, though, Dallas were usually happy to let the opponent have the ball and attack on the break. They will need to keep possession and find a way through San Jose's five-man defense this time, so we see a closer game than the market does. Judd's absence clearly favors FC Dallas, but they will also have to manage the second half without Farrington and Sarver.
Our score predictions are 1-1 or 0-0. Even if one side takes the lead from a set piece, the other still has a capable delivery and aerial targets to find an equalizer, while the team in front has limited options for adding another goal. The unfamiliar prospect of FC Dallas having more of the ball, San Jose Earthquakes' away defensive setup and the attacking absences on both sides all support a draw. This forecast assumes San Jose keep their five-man defense and concede possession on the road. If Arena opts to keep the ball and push forward in search of a move up to third place, FC Dallas could get the counterattacking chances they know well and the match could unfold differently.
