This match is a meeting of two opposite ways to score. Sendai live on three-point volume and Mikawa live in the paint and on the glass. Both early records are inflated by weak opponents, and against a shared opponent the two sides look much closer than their win-loss lines suggest. The real question is whether a steady stream of threes is worth more than a few extra possessions inside.
Sendai take about 36 threes a game and have made 13 in four of their five games so far, against Akita, Levanga and Chiba alike. They play a tall, shooting frontcourt with Layman, Boothe, Culver and El Darwich, but that size has not turned into rebounds: they were badly beaten on the boards at Levanga. Mikawa under their new head coach play inside-out with Gardner, O'Mara and White. They won the boards in three of four games, by margins of three or four, kept their turnovers low and took around 29 threes a game.
The key matchup is Gardner and O'Mara posting up against Sendai's stretch bigs, who are not rim protectors. Mikawa should win the paint and earn a few more free throws. At the other end, if Mikawa's big lineup has to chase Layman and Boothe out to the arc, that is where Sendai's edge appears. Six or seven extra three-point attempts at Sendai's usual rate are worth more points than a small rebounding gap.
The records hide how even this is. Mikawa's big wins came on the road at Osaka, and Sendai's came at home to Akita and Chiba. Away at Levanga, the opponent both sides have played, their results were broadly similar. The lopsided head-to-head record mostly comes from before either current coach or roster. Sendai's shooting group all played two days earlier, and I found no absence reported for this game.
I expect a slow first half, then a push from Mikawa after the break, which is their pattern. Sendai have been strong in fourth quarters, and a close game going into the last quarter at home suits their volume and Culver's free throws.
That's why I'm siding with Sendai at home, getting a few points of start. I expect the threes to keep them close all the way, with a real chance of winning outright.
