This match is San-en's ball pressure against Ryukyu's second chances, with three-point volume about level between them. San-en arrive with a shiny record and a week of rest, while Ryukyu come off a heavy run of games that included a trip to Taoyuan. Strip out one blowout, though, and San-en's wins have been narrow, against teams they were expected to beat. It looks like a single-digit game settled late.
Ryukyu win through extra possessions and their home floor. They took 15 offensive rebounds at Yokohama and 13 against Altiri, and four of their last five home games were won, three of them by more than 20. They lose when the start goes wrong and the other side's threes fall, as in the Nagasaki defeat, where the hosts hit 18 of 32.
San-en win through pressure and perimeter creation. Davis, Brown and Van Tubbergen do the scoring, Sasaki distributes, and opponents have committed 14 turnovers a game. The leak is on the glass: they lost the rebound count in five of six games with a full box, and Kobe took 20 offensive boards off them.
The key matchup is Cooley and Kawamata against Harrellson and San-en's forwards. Cooley has taken five or six offensive rebounds in each of three games I read, and Kawamata grabbed five in just nine minutes at Yokohama. San-en have an answer, with 13 offensive boards of their own at Kobe, so I expect Ryukyu to win this window by around four boards rather than dominate it.
The other side of the ledger is real. Ryukyu's turnovers rise and fall with the opponent's steals, and San-en had eight or more steals in five of seven games, so 13 to 15 giveaways is the likely count. The load also showed up in a specific place: Ryukyu gave up transition baskets off lost balls in the third quarter at Taoyuan. I count that against them, but the glass and the extra free throws come out a little larger.
On the lineups, Cooley played about 32 minutes in Ryukyu's last game. K. Jones sat that game after playing about 27 in the one before, and Sadohara has missed two straight, with his minutes going to Waki and Matsuwaki. Jerrett has no return notice, and every number here is without him. San-en's Yu did not appear in the box scores I read, so he has not closed the rebounding hole.
Expect San-en to push early if Ryukyu's guards turn it over, since the first quarter is their best window. Ryukyu's second chances and free throws should narrow it through the middle, and the fourth quarter leans their way: they average about 22 points in it against San-en's 19, and San-en's short rotation will have heavy minutes on its main players.
That's why I'm siding with Ryukyu to win this at home. The record says San-en, but the matchup hands Ryukyu more shots and more trips to the line, on a floor where they have been very hard to beat.
