A game where the home side's recent shooting is flattering it. Golden State is on the second night of a back-to-back, with four long-term absences and its two veterans carrying rest flags, while Phoenix has had three days off. Both defences leak, so the game should trade baskets and the legs in the fourth quarter matter.
Golden State lives on about 40 threes a game and has hit 40 percent of them, which is a hot stretch rather than a norm. Phoenix scores differently: it got to the line 32 times and shot 36 of 49 from the field in its 131-122 win over this same opponent, under the same absence set. With Porzingis and Santos out, Golden State's rim protection is thin against that kind of pressure.
Phoenix is not a strong team, it was blown out by Portland and lost to Denver and Oklahoma City. But rest, free throws and inside scoring against a tired, depleted frontcourt are the better structure here. That's why I'm siding with Phoenix to win outright.
