Two of these matches come down to a home side that newly lost the players its offence runs through, playing the second night of a back-to-back. Orlando are without Anthony Black, which leaves Franz Wagner as their only proven half-court creator. Indiana have rested Siakam, Nembhard and Nesmith on top of a long injury list, so they have no primary ball-handler left. Both opponents come in rested, and their main weapon attacks exactly what the home side just lost.
Orlando vs Washington. Black played 32 minutes in the last game, scoring 23 points and taking 11 free throws. He was Orlando's second creator and their main way to the foul line. The guards behind him (Richardson, Cain, Morales) have produced little, and Suggs, Banchero, Isaac and Penda are already out. That leaves a thin forward line of Carter and da Silva, with Vucevic and Bitadze playing only a few minutes.
Washington's route is the foul line. Kyshawn Davis and Trae Young draw a lot of contact, and Orlando have conceded heavy free-throw volume, including 25 of 40 on twos to Boston in the last game. Washington do miss Sarr's rim protection, but he was mostly a defensive unit, so it costs them less than Black costs Orlando. Orlando's answer is the three-ball: they made 18 in both of their recent wins. Both of those games came with Black on the floor, though.
The flow I expect: Orlando's home start and shooting keep them level early. Then their starters, on heavy minutes for a second straight night, tire through the second half against a Washington side coming off three days of rest. In a close fourth quarter, Washington's foul-drawing and Young's creation are the more repeatable route. That's why I'm siding with Washington getting the points.
Indiana vs Atlanta. Indiana's official report rules out all five projected starters, including Siakam, Nembhard and Nesmith resting after 30-35 minutes each the night before. McConnell is out too. Those three rested players scored 51 of Indiana's 90 points against Brooklyn and drew 18 of their 30 free throws. Indiana gave the ball away 13-21 times a game even with their handlers playing.
What remains is Quenton Jackson, Oubre, Huff, Walker, Slawson and Kobe Brown, now stretched to heavy minutes. They face Daniels and Alexander-Walker, whose pressure is Atlanta's second weapon alongside volume threes. Atlanta are missing Landale, have Flemings suspended and Jalen Johnson questionable, but their rested rotation has scored well above what this Pacers group produced per minute against Brooklyn.
The early quarter is the loosest, since a side with nothing to lose can hit early threes. From the second quarter, the minutes with no Indiana handler should pile up turnovers and Atlanta run-outs, and the gap opens against tired legs. That's why I'm siding with Atlanta to win this one by a clear margin.
