Two home openers, and both should be decided away from the star matchups. In Philadelphia, the frontcourt behind Embiid is close to empty against a Cleveland team that can keep a true big on the floor all game. In Oklahoma City, the same two starting cores that played each other tight all of last season meet again, and OKC's chance to separate sits only in the bench minutes.
Philadelphia is a rebuilt team in its second game. They won at the Knicks through wing size, ball pressure and transition: fifteen forced turnovers, twenty-two points off them, and plenty of fast breaks. Beneath that, they shot poorly from three and lost the glass by eight to a Knicks frontcourt that looks a lot like Cleveland's. Hukporti, Fall and Barlow are out, Wade is questionable after missing the opener, and Bona played only a handful of minutes as the backup five. In some stretches LeBron had to play centre.
Cleveland opens its season with Harden, Mitchell, Mobley and Allen together since the first day of camp. Allen carries a questionable tag, but the latest beat report says he expects to play. With him, Cleveland has two bigs for all forty-eight minutes. Embiid shot just 4 of 15 against a two-big rotation in New York. The key stretch is when Embiid sits and Philadelphia goes small, because that is where Cleveland can win the paint and the second chances. Harden's pick-and-roll with Mobley also slows the game into the half court, which shrinks Philadelphia's transition game.
I expect a close game decided in the fourth quarter, with Philadelphia needing to win the turnover battle clearly just to pull away. That's why I'm siding with Cleveland to keep this one tight or win it.
In Oklahoma City, Gilgeous-Alexander leads a team with two bigs and a deep guard bench. But Dort, Joe and Wiggins are gone, so OKC's spacing and point-of-attack defence are thinner than last season. Denver's starting five is unchanged around Jokic, Murray, Braun, Johnson and Gordon. Last season the same cores played four regular-season games, and three of them ended within six points. In the March meeting Jokic played forty minutes and OKC won by three at home.
Denver's weak spot is a new bench, with DeRozan, Tyus Jones, Bagley and Diallo, now without Strawther. OKC's bench guards can build a run there early in the second and fourth quarters. When the starters return, though, Jokic against Hartenstein and Holmgren is a matchup Denver has held up in before. I expect the starters' minutes to stay level and OKC's bench run to be cut down in the closing stretch. That's why I'm siding with Denver to stay within reach.
