[2026-27 Italian Serie A] Como 1907 vs Venezia: Match Preview Kick-off: 11 November 1, 11:30 UTC
What matters more than Como 1907’s changes to the starting XI is who they can bring on in the second half and how they attack down the flanks. Venezia have struggled to take their chances even since Davide Nicola took charge, but they have a route to exploit Como 1907’s mistakes at the back.
1. Match overview and team form
Cesc Fabregas’s Como 1907 are on a four-match winning run in all competitions. Against Sassuolo, they struggled in the first half, so Fabregas made three changes at the break. Anastasios Douvikas finished chances created down the left in the 49th and 60th minutes. Against Torino, Como also scored three times from the 81st minute after making changes. Eight of their nine goals across their last three competitive matches have come in the second half, showing how much their substitutes have contributed in attack.
Their options up front are thinning, though. Moise Kean is out after surgery, and Assane Diao has yet to rejoin team training. Reports differ on whether Jayden Addai will be assessed after a muscle problem following his appearance against Torino or will miss the match (Fantamaster and Calciodangolo, October 31). If Douvikas is contained or comes off early, Como do not have an easy like-for-like replacement. Trevoh Chalobah has also been reported out, so Como will need to be careful in possession at the back (Eurosport, October 31).
Venezia are expected to stick with Nicola’s 3-5-2. They beat Napoli thanks to a deflected shot from Aco Adams, but failed to score despite attempting 19 shots against Genoa. Two goals were ruled out for offside against Inter Milan. Their one goal in three matches under Nicola points to issues with finishing and the timing of runs, rather than a complete lack of chances. Nicola has stressed the roles of substitutes, and reports say he could make three or four changes to the starting XI compared with the Inter match (Fantamaster, October 31; FocusStarsNews, October 30).
Como are playing their sixth competitive match in 18 days, with away trips to RC Lens and Inter Milan coming up next (Tuttosport, October 30). Fabregas may rotate, but Como have already won matches in which they changed the starting XI and brought starters on in the second half. The two Serie A meetings between these sides ended in draws, but those came before Nicola’s appointment and offer little insight into today’s tactics.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key matchup is Como’s wide attack against Venezia’s defending in the box. Against Sassuolo, Como created Douvikas’s goal with a low cross from Caqueret. Against Torino, crosses from Nico Paz and Yan Couto led to headed goals. Venezia conceded an own goal while dealing with a low ball from the left byline and a corner against Inter. If Como get deep down the flanks and send in low crosses, Venezia’s back three will have to deal with them in the box again. But if Venezia keep Douvikas under control and force Como to cross from deeper positions, Como could struggle to score despite building up shots, as they did against Roma. That is where Paz’s runs and Jacobo Naveros’s heading become important.
The second matchup is Como’s defending in possession against the forward passes aimed at Adams. Venezia’s goal against Napoli came when Adams received a pass from Zimon Zom. Como conceded against Torino after losing the ball in their own half. A similar mistake with a full-back advanced could give Adams a direct chance. The timing will have to be right, though, as shown by the goals ruled out against Inter.
If the first half ends 0-0, the managers’ substitutions will matter. Como have recent evidence of second-half goals against Sassuolo, and Nicola has also emphasised the role of his substitutes. If Venezia are trailing and push their defensive line higher, Paz and Martin Baturina could get more chances to carry the ball forward after a turnover. If Venezia score first, Stankovic’s saves and the defending in the box could decide the match.
3. Verdict and conclusion
The market strongly favours the home side, reflecting the points gap, Como’s winning run and Venezia’s low scoring rate. We agree with that view. The case for a Como win rests less on their league position than on how their wide attacks match up with the problems Venezia have had defending situations in the box.
Even if Como fail to score in the first half, they can change the attack with their second-half substitutes. Venezia can counter with forward passes and set pieces, but they have turned those chances into a goal only once in three matches under Nicola. Kean and Diao’s absences matter more for Como’s chances of adding goals after Douvikas than for the likely direction of the result. If the first goal comes in the second half, there will also be less time for further scoring.
The outlook changes if Venezia score first or Douvikas comes off and weakens Como’s finishing in the box. Even allowing for those possibilities, we expect Como to take control with their second-half wide attacks and substitutions, win by at least two goals, and keep the total at three goals or fewer with Venezia failing to score.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman offerings] Full-time result: Home win. Como’s low crosses from wide areas and second-half substitutions target Venezia’s recent problems defending in the box. Venezia’s route to a win depends on improving on their one goal in three matches under Nicola. Handicap -1: Home win. If Venezia fall behind and push forward, Como can win the ball and use their wide substitutes to create a two-goal margin or more. Como’s league record of one goal scored and eight conceded across five matches that were level at half-time and then went against them also fits this scenario. Under/Over 3.5: Under. Rotation and Venezia’s 3-5-2 could push the first goal into the second half. Kean and Diao’s absences leave Como with fewer options for adding goals, while Venezia still have problems timing their runs, as shown by their repeated offside goals.
