[2026-27 Spanish La Liga] Getafe vs Sevilla preview and analysis Kick-off: November 1, 13:00 UTC
Getafe’s fight to climb out of the relegation zone meets Sevilla’s push for a top-six finish at the Coliseum. Before looking at the table, the key is how the teams contest the ball on Getafe’s left flank and in midfield.
1. Match overview and team form
Getafe have 9 points and sit 18th, while Sevilla are sixth. Sevilla naturally draw attention after Getafe conceded 11 goals across their last three competitive matches. However, Getafe’s starting line-ups were far from their usual strength in those games. Of the 11 players with the most minutes, 5, 7 and 11 were left out of the starting XI in those matches. Getafe conceded just 3 goals in their four league home games when they mainly fielded their first-choice players. The recent goals conceded do not tell the whole story about their defence today.
Even if the defence has recovered, Getafe still have a scoring problem. They have scored 5 goals in 10 league matches, and in the 7 league games with data available, their expected goals were no higher than 1 in any match. They had 20 shots against Málaga, but their xG was 0.95. Jose Bordalas Jimenez has spoken about their lack of finishing (Babel, October 31). The numbers also point to a need to create chances from better positions. Bordalas often changes shape, but the press expect a back three and a front two of Enes Ünal and Martín Satriano for this match (El Desmarque, October 30). Direct balls, second balls and set pieces are their main routes to goal.
Johan Mojica’s suspension affects both the forward runs and the wide delivery from left wing-back. Davinchi, the expected replacement, has played 256 minutes this season. The return of Djené from suspension should help the defence, but it also matters how long Orej Mangala can manage in midfield if he starts again just two days after coming on in the second half of the Copa match and scoring the winner (Dorsal 16, October 31).
Sevilla won the ball back with a high press against Osasuna and scored through Yusuf Fofana’s forward runs. A substitute also won possession in the second half and helped add another goal. The press are split on whether Luis Garcia Plaza will stick with two up front or add another midfielder. Miguel Sierra is unavailable, but Sevilla have spread the attacking minutes across several players. Kike Salas, Gabriel Suazo and Lucien Agoumé, who rested in the Copa, are also expected back. Both teams rested many first-choice players in the Copa on October 30. Getafe, though, had already played 5 competitive matches in the previous 15 days.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key battle is Getafe’s left side, where Davinchi is expected to play, against Sevilla’s attacks down the right. Of the 11 goals Getafe have conceded recently, 5 came from set pieces and 3 from crosses. Sevilla can combine Juan Iglesias’s forward runs with movement from Félix Correia or Chidera Ejuke. If the wide defence cannot cover in time after Davinchi pushes forward, Sevilla will find room to cross. On the other hand, if Getafe win the ball after Iglesias advances, direct passes towards Ünal and Satriano can target the space behind Sevilla’s defence. Bordalas has also warned about Sevilla’s wide players (Football Fantasy, October 31).
The second battle is for the second ball after a long pass. If Getafe’s expected midfield trio of Mangala, Ramón Terrats and Francho Serrano wins possession, Terrats can restart the attack towards the front two. Sevilla could be outnumbered in that contest if Agoumé and Fofana form a midfield two. But if Fofana gets to the ball first, Sevilla can quickly attack the space on the flank left open by Getafe’s advancing wing-backs. Plaza’s decision to add a third midfielder would change the terms of this battle.
Set pieces offer chances to both teams and pose a defensive problem for Getafe. They will look to make up for their lack of goals from open play through dead-ball situations, but they cannot use Mojica’s delivery. Sevilla have Fofana’s free kicks and Kike Salas’s heading ability. If Getafe reach half-time without conceding and keep winning second balls, they can make this a physical, contested match. An early Sevilla goal from a wide area would force Getafe’s wing-backs further forward and give Fofana more room to carry the ball.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Sevilla to win. The deciding factor is less Getafe’s position or their recent 11 goals conceded, and more Sevilla’s ability to attack the flanks and set pieces where those goals came from. Getafe conceded only 3 goals in their four league home games with most of their first-choice defence, and Djené is also back. We expect a match where Sevilla turn a limited number of chances into goals rather than building a big lead.
The market favours Sevilla while also accounting for Getafe’s recent heavy defeats and absences. We agree with the market. Getafe have created few good chances relative to their shot count, and today they are also without Mojica’s delivery from the flank. Our view would change if Getafe get through the first half without conceding and score first from a second ball or set piece. Sevilla would then have to push forward, giving Getafe’s front two chances to receive direct passes. For now, we expect Sevilla to protect a single goal scored from a wide move or set piece and take the win.
[Final picks · by market · Betman listings] Full-time result: Away win, Sevilla’s wide attacks and set pieces will test the same areas on Getafe’s left and in their set-piece defence where Davinchi is expected to play Handicap +1: Draw, Getafe do not tend to keep the ball for long when trailing, so there should be less counterattacking space than Osasuna had; the return of first-choice players and Djené should also make a two-goal defeat unlikely Total 2.5: Under, this line is one goal higher than the main line of 1.5 offered by overseas bookmakers, and Getafe have a low xG, will be without Mojica’s delivery and face Sevilla’s first-choice defenders, leaving set pieces as their main route to a reply
