This match puts the league's best turnover-forcing unit, coming in rested, against a Clippers roster that has only one player who can run an offence. With Kawhi Leonard traded and Beal, Ingram and Strus all out, every Clippers possession goes through Garland or a player who does not create. That handling hole is built into the roster, so it shows up in every minute rather than on one bad night. The margin should be decided by the possession count and by depth, not by shooting luck.
OKC win by defending. Against Denver they shot 11 of 43 from three and still won comfortably, because they forced 22 turnovers with 12 steals and 9 blocks. The Clippers stay in games through three-point volume, free-throw trips and Lopez's scoring off the bench. They lose through ball security: 18 turnovers against Sacramento and 25 at the Lakers, with Garland alone giving it away 9 times. Both of those games were played with the same roster that suits up here.
The key matchup is Garland against Wallace, then Caruso and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the point of attack. With no second creator to punish help, OKC can load up on him. Garland will score, but the Lakers and Kings are weaker forcers than this group, and OKC's own giveaways were only 12 and 14, so the Clippers' pressure does not cancel the gap. On the glass, Holmgren has averaged 17 rebounds and 4 blocks, and the Clippers lost the boards in both of their games.
Rest matters here too. OKC come in on almost three days off and fully healthy. The Clippers travelled east on less rest, the same gap they had before their 25-turnover night. OKC used 13 players against Denver, while the Clippers ran a 9-man rotation at the Lakers.
I expect the Clippers to start carefully, since Lue has demanded fewer turnovers, and Garland's threes can keep the first quarter close. The lead should be built in the second and third quarters, when Garland rests and Wagler and Sanders handle against Caruso and Mitchell, and when OKC's deeper rotation meets a tiring Clippers group. OKC play again the next night, so the starters may sit late with a big lead, but OKC's bench forces turnovers as well, and last season's three meetings were all wide wins against a stronger Clippers roster. That's why I'm siding with Oklahoma City to win this one by a big margin.
