[2026-27 Spanish La Liga] Sevilla vs Osasuna: Match Preview Kick-off: October 26, 20:00 UTC
Sevilla and Osasuna meet at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán for the final match of La Liga round 10 in the 2026-27 season. Sevilla are looking to end a three-match winless run in their first home league game in 37 days, while Osasuna head away from home for the first time since Jagoba Arrasate returned as coach.
1. Match overview and team form
There are three points between the sides. Sevilla have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 9 games and sit sixth, while Osasuna are 12th with 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. Sevilla are chasing the teams above them, while Osasuna want to build some distance from the bottom of the table. The season-long numbers do not tell the full story of Osasuna’s recent change, though. The club sacked Miguel Ramis Luis on October 12, and Arrasate has led the team in only one league match since returning, a 2-0 win over Racing Santander on October 18.
La Liga this season Overall: Sevilla, 9 games, 14 goals scored and 16 conceded / Osasuna, 9 games, 10 goals scored and 18 conceded At home: Sevilla, 2 wins and 2 defeats, 5 goals scored and 7 conceded / Osasuna, 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, 4 goals scored and 3 conceded Away: Sevilla, 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, 9 goals scored and 9 conceded / Osasuna, 1 win and 3 defeats, 6 goals scored and 15 conceded
Sevilla’s three-match winless run includes defeats to Barcelona and Real Madrid. They have lost to all three of this season’s top sides, but are unbeaten against the other six teams, with 4 wins and 2 draws. Away to Levante, Sevilla led 2-0 before drawing 3-3. Their challenge is not only to create chances, but also to manage the game after taking the lead and protect it from the opposition’s attacks. Their 1-0 wins over Valencia and Deportivo La Coruña show they can do that.
Osasuna’s 15 goals conceded in 4 away games are a concern, but all came under Ramis. When his side defended deep, it struggled to get the ball to Ante Budimir. When they added attackers after falling behind, their defensive shape suffered. Arrasate changed four players in his first starting XI back and set up with three in midfield. The 2-0 win over Racing Santander, along with an xG of 3.38 and xGA of 0.28 according to the Data Center, pointed to a different performance. The opponent, though, had conceded the most goals in the league at the time. This is the first test of whether the new setup can also contain a side of Sevilla’s level away from home.
The goals are spread differently across the teams. Sevilla’s 14 league goals have been shared among 12 players. Budimir has scored 7 of Osasuna’s 10, including 4 penalties. If Osasuna cannot get crosses to Budimir, they will need other players to finish their chances. Sevilla have more varied attacking contributors, but will be without Miguel Sierra, their right-sided attacking midfielder. Sierra started all 8 of his league appearances this season, scoring twice, and combined defensive work with freedom to move in attack. Ruben Vargas is expected to start in his place after Sierra underwent shoulder surgery.
Sevilla will also be without Marcão. Giorgi Kochorashvili, Jon Guridi and Luka Stassin have returned, but are unlikely to play long minutes. Osasuna are missing Jorge Herrando, Aimar Oroz and Romain Del Castillo. None started Arrasate’s first game back, so he can keep that lineup intact. Both teams have had 8 days off since their last league match, and will play their first Copa del Rey tie against lower-division opposition three days later. There is little reason to expect Sevilla to make many changes to their starting XI today.
In their last 10 meetings, Sevilla have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 defeats, with 7 of those games featuring 2 goals or fewer in total. Sevilla won last season’s home game 1-0, but lost 2-1 away to Osasuna in April after scoring first. Luis Garcia Plaza was Sevilla’s coach then, too. Osasuna, however, were led by Alessio Lisci rather than Arrasate. The key is how Sevilla respond to Osasuna’s crosses and second-half substitutions after taking the lead, rather than the past scores alone.
2. Matchup analysis
Sevilla can turn turnovers in the opposition half into chances quickly. Against Levante, Rafa Mir intercepted a short back pass and scored. Against Barcelona, pressure on the opponent’s handling of a throw-in led to a Youssef En Nesyri header. These attacks work when Mir leads the press and Lucien Agoumé and Youssef En Nesyri push forward from midfield. Osasuna under Ramis have also struggled to play out against a high press, so Sevilla may look to pounce as soon as the ball reaches the centre-backs.
Arrasate’s return game showed another way Osasuna can respond. Their centre-backs drew the opposition press before sending the ball in behind for a wide player. If Sevilla push their defensive line up to press, Jonathan Dubasin can run into the space behind Juan Iglesias. Dubasin found the net twice against Racing Santander, though both goals were ruled out for offside. That match alone does not prove he will get in behind Sevilla, but it does show Osasuna will not rely only on short passes to escape the press.
Midfield battles will matter when either team plays the ball long. Osasuna are expected to line up in a 4-3-3, with Jon Moncayola, Iker Muñoz and Moi Gómez in midfield. Sevilla are expected to use a 4-2-3-1, with Agoumé and En Nesyri in the middle. If Osasuna win the second ball, Moi Gómez can move the attack out wide. Sevilla could bring on Kochorashvili to compete in midfield, although his minutes may be limited just after returning. If Agoumé and En Nesyri win the ball first, Sevilla’s attacking midfielders can get forward before Osasuna’s defence is set.
Vargas’s defensive work on Sevilla’s right will be important. If he does not track back as deep as Sierra, Iglesias could have to deal with both Dubasin’s runs and Abel Bretones pushing forward. Sevilla’s first goal conceded against Real Madrid came after the opposition broke down their right and played the ball into the middle. We cannot assume Osasuna will create the same move, but Sevilla’s balance between pressing numbers and cover on the right will matter.
Sevilla can also target that flank. Osasuna have conceded from wide attacks and crosses against Alavés and Espanyol this season. If Dubasin focuses on making runs, Bretones could be left with more ground to cover. Vargas and Iglesias can push forward on that side, with Mir looking for the ball in the box. Alejandro Catena failed to deal with the ball in dangerous areas against both Alavés and Espanyol, contributing to goals conceded. Arrasate paired Flavien Boyomo with Catena against Racing Santander. How the new pairing handles Sevilla’s press and wide attacks remains untested away from home.
On the other flank, crosses from Valentin Rosier and Rubén García will test Sevilla’s left side. When Osasuna send the ball into the box, Budimir will compete with Andres Castrin and Kike Salas. Castrin won 6 of his 7 duels against Deportivo La Coruña, but Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s approach was different from Budimir’s. Sevilla must deal with the delivery as well as the aerial battle with Budimir. Moi Gómez’s set pieces and the contact inside the box are also worth watching. Budimir has scored 4 penalties this season.
Substitutions will matter more after the first goal. Against Deportivo La Coruña, Sevilla added cover at full-back and in midfield in the second half to preserve a 1-0 lead. In April against Osasuna, though, they dropped deeper after taking the lead in the 69th minute and failed to deal with crosses and shots from the edge of the box. They also let a two-goal lead slip against Levante. If Osasuna score first, Sevilla can add attackers with Isaac Romero and Manuel Bueno. Osasuna raised their attacking threat with substitutions after their intensity dipped midway through the second half against Racing Santander, but Arrasate has yet to defend an away lead.
3. Verdict and prediction
Sevilla deserve to be favourites thanks to home advantage and their unbeaten record against teams outside the top three. Their wins in those matches have rarely come by a wide margin, though, and Osasuna are unlikely to respond to Sevilla’s press only with short passes at the back. Osasuna’s 15 goals conceded away from home are also hard to ignore, but they all came under Ramis. Those results alone do not tell us how to rate Arrasate’s changes to their build-up and defensive pairing.
The market leans towards a Sevilla win because of their home advantage, higher points total and Osasuna’s away defensive record. We think the chance of Osasuna scoring again from crosses and set pieces when Sevilla drop deeper after taking the lead is greater than the market suggests. Sevilla’s press could turn a mistake in Osasuna’s defence into a goal, while Arrasate’s more direct approach could create chances in behind Sevilla’s right side. Both teams have had 8 days off and need points in the league, so we expect them to compete hard from the start.
Our score prediction is Sevilla 2-2 Osasuna. We expect Sevilla to take the lead with their press and attacks down the right, then Osasuna to respond with crosses and battles inside the box. Even if Sevilla score again, dropping deeper could give Osasuna further chances to come back. This forecast is based on Sevilla’s record of managing leads, Osasuna’s changed approach since Arrasate returned, and the attacking routes both sides can find out wide. If Sevilla strengthen their wide defence after scoring first without sitting too deep, and Castrin wins his aerial battles with Budimir, Osasuna may find fewer chances to equalise and Sevilla could win by a goal.
