[2026-27 AFC Champions League] Neftchi Fergana vs Al Ittihad (Saudi Arabia) preview and analysis Kick-off: October 26, 13:45 UTC
Neftchi Fergana host Al Ittihad (Saudi Arabia) at Istiqlol Stadium in Fergana on October 26 in round three of the AFC Champions League Elite West Region league stage. The Uzbek league leaders have already picked up their first win in the competition, while their Saudi Pro League opponents are still searching for a victory after two matches. Al Ittihad are expected to take control, with Neftchi Fergana’s midfield defending and second-half response likely to shape the result.
1. Match overview and team form
Neftchi Fergana beat Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1-0 at home before losing 3-1 away to Al Nassr. Al Ittihad drew 1-1 away to Al Shamal and then lost 2-1 at home to Shabab Al Ahli. In the competition standings as of October 25, according to the data centre, Neftchi Fergana are seventh with three points and Al Ittihad are 11th with one. Al Ittihad coach Jens Wissing has said his team are targeting a win and warned that Neftchi Fergana sit top of the Uzbek league (Half Al Hadas, October 25).
Neftchi Fergana have been strong domestically. They top the 2026 Uzbekistan Super League with 18 wins, four draws and three defeats from 25 matches, scoring 59 goals and conceding 22 (Stavka TV, October 23). On October 23, they came from behind to beat second-place rivals Pakhtakor 3-1 away after trailing 1-0 at half-time. Coach Islom Ismoilov said he had planned to approach the first half cautiously, but his side conceded, and that changes on the flanks after the break turned the game around (Zamin, October 24). Across their last 10 competitive matches, their first-half goals for and against stand at 7-14, compared with 14-5 in the second half. Their late comebacks are a real pattern, but they have trailed at half-time in four of their last five matches, which is a concern against this opponent.
Their home record needs to be viewed in context. Neftchi Fergana have won 18, drawn two and lost two of their 22 home matches since August 21, 2025 (Soccer365, October 24). Most of those results came against Uzbek clubs. Their only home match in this competition, against Al Quwa Al Jawiya, was settled by an 83rd-minute winner. Away to Al Nassr, they conceded twice in quick succession from attacks built down the flanks in the 34th and 42nd minutes. The expected goals figures from that match, 0.54 for and 2.20 against, also include the period after a red card, so they do not tell the whole story of the first half. Still, Neftchi Fergana did not keep the ball or create good chances as they do in the domestic league against a strong opponent.
Al Ittihad are fourth in the Saudi Pro League with seven wins, two draws and one defeat from 10 matches, but they conceded first in both of their competition games. They salvaged a draw against Al Shamal with a stoppage-time equaliser and scored only once after going 2-0 down to Shabab Al Ahli in the 16th minute. In the league, they have recently beaten Al Ettifaq 4-1 and Al Diriyah 2-0. Across the last nine competitive matches for which the data centre has expected goals figures, their total was 19.98 xG and 19 actual goals. That points to a consistent supply of chances, but their two league wins have not shown how they will break down a well-organised defence in this competition.
The players available to each side matter more than their recent results. Neftchi Fergana will be without defensive midfielder Jovan Djokic after Achilles tendon surgery, while Ikromzhon Alibaev, who started both of their competition matches, is suspended. Zoran Marusic, who headed home the winner from a cross against Al Quwa Al Jawiya, and Marcus Forss, who started against Al Nassr, are both doubts. Al Ittihad have defenders Hasan Kadesh, Ahmed Sharahili and Ahmed Al Julaydan listed as absentees. Winger Steven Bergwijn has returned to training, but the coaching staff will decide whether he plays (Billgoal, October 25).
Team Neftchi Fergana: Availability: Djokic is out and Alibaev is suspended. Possible impact: another midfielder will have to cover the central space in front of the defence. Neftchi Fergana: Availability: Marusic and Forss are doubts. Possible impact: the choice of forward to finish crosses in the second half may be reduced. Al Ittihad: Availability: Kadesh, Sharahili and Al Julaydan are out, while Bergwijn is a doubt. Possible impact: the defensive pairing and starting options on the wing are uncertain.
The clubs have met twice officially, both times in 2004, and Al Ittihad won both matches. The squads, coaches and competition format have all changed since then, so those results offer little insight into today’s tactics. Both teams have played four matches in the past 14 days. Neftchi Fergana have been eliminated from the domestic cup and do not play their next league match until November 8, giving them room to focus on this fixture. Al Ittihad have a league away match in four days, and Wissing has said that makes his team selection difficult (Al Kass, October 25). The forecast around kick-off is for dry weather and temperatures of 13-14°C, so conditions are unlikely to have much effect on the game (Open-Meteo, checked October 26).
2. Matchup analysis
Islom Ismoilov has used 4-3-3, 3-4-3 and 5-4-1 shapes depending on the opponent. Neftchi Fergana used five defenders away to Al Nassr, taking the opponent’s strength into account, and started in a 4-3-3 at home against Al Quwa Al Jawiya. They are likely to add numbers in defence while Al Ittihad have the ball, though we cannot be sure which shape the hosts will start with. The key is who can stop the passes coming into the middle after an attack down the flank, rather than simply how many defenders Neftchi Fergana use.
Al Nassr scored against Neftchi Fergana’s back five in the 34th minute with a cutback after breaking down the right, then added a second in the 42nd minute after an attack that began with a cross from the opposite flank (Gulf Daily News, October 13). That is a route Al Ittihad can look to use. If Muhannad Al Shanqiti or a wide player from midfield gets forward and sends in a low ball, Houssem Aouar and Georginio Wijnaldum can make runs into the box. Alibaev, who played in that match, is unavailable today. His replacements will need to help defend the flanks while also tracking runners moving into the middle.
Ismoilov still has options. Soccer365 named Abrorbek Ismoilov, Ratinho, Jamshid Iskanderov and Vladimir Jovović as possible midfield replacements (October 24). Iskanderov supplied the cross that led to Neftchi Fergana’s consolation goal against Al Nassr, while Abrorbek Ismoilov came on to strengthen the flanks in the second half against Pakhtakor. Giving them more defensive work through the middle could reduce their availability as wide attackers or second-half substitutes. Neftchi Fergana’s route forward after winning the ball will also depend on who starts.
Al Ittihad’s possession will not automatically lead to more chances. They had 59% possession and 14 shots against Al Shamal, but both teams managed six shots inside the box (data centre). Against Shabab Al Ahli, they had 68% possession and 23 shots, but an expected goals total of 1.54. To recreate the chances Al Nassr found, Al Ittihad need to pull Neftchi Fergana’s midfielders towards the flanks and then have a runner ready to receive a cutback inside the box. Bergwijn’s inclusion would give them another winger who can take on defenders directly, but his availability has not been confirmed. Any change to the starting lineup could alter the approach and threat of their first-half attack.
At the other end, Neftchi Fergana’s right flank deserves attention. Kofi Kuao created chances with shots and crosses against Al Quwa Al Jawiya and also cut inside to shoot from the right against Al Nassr. Al Ittihad left-back Faris Abdi could leave space behind him when he joins the attack, giving Kuao room to move into. If Al Ittihad start Bergwijn on the left and keep attacking down that side, Kuao may have to spend more time defending. Which side can force the opposing full-back to retreat first could affect how often Neftchi Fergana can counter.
Getting forward down the flanks is one thing for Neftchi Fergana; finishing the move is another. Against Al Quwa Al Jawiya, substitute Marusic headed in a cross to win the match. Against Al Nassr, Alisher Odilov came on at half-time and scored the consolation goal in the 51st minute. If Marusic and Forss are unavailable today, Stipe Perica will have a bigger role in the box. He leads the team with 17 league goals, but has not scored in 99 minutes across two competition matches. If he cannot hold up long passes or crosses, Kuao and Odilov will have less time to join the attack.
Al Ittihad’s absences in central defence do not automatically give Neftchi Fergana the edge. Saad Al Mousa has featured in recent matches, while Danilo Pereira and Abdi have started regularly this season. Al Ittihad’s expected goals against in their last two league wins were 1.48 and 0.93 (data centre). Danilo’s clearance error led to a goal against Al Hilal, though. If Neftchi Fergana keep sending crosses and corners into the box, the reshuffled defence will be tested, and Marusic’s uncertain availability also raises the question of who will finish those chances.
The coaches’ substitutions could matter after the break. Neftchi Fergana have had goals from forwards brought on as substitutes in both of their competition matches. Wissing also brought on two attackers at once in the 64th minute against Al Shamal. Against Al Ettifaq, he replaced George Ilenikhena, who had scored as a starter, with Youssef En-Nesyri, and his team scored twice in the second half. If Neftchi Fergana reach half-time without conceding, they can look to Odilov’s runs down the flank and set pieces. Al Ittihad can also bring on a new striker to keep testing a tiring defence. Ismoilov has mentioned hamstring tightness among players aged 30 and over, which could affect the defence at this stage, but there is no basis to assume the fitness of the players who will actually feature.
3. Verdict and prediction
Al Ittihad are the more likely winners. Neftchi Fergana have a strong home record and can fight back with second-half substitutions, but Djokic and Alibaev are both missing, leaving other players to cover the space in front of the defence. Al Ittihad have a clear route to attack, sending the ball in from the flanks for Aouar, Wijnaldum or a forward to receive in the box. If Neftchi Fergana allow the same kind of wide attacks they did against Al Nassr, they are at risk of conceding first in the opening half.
The market also makes Al Ittihad favourites, so we agree with the match result pick. Alongside the gap in squad strength reflected in the market and Neftchi Fergana’s absences, we are focused on how the vacant defensive midfield roles could match up with Al Ittihad’s wide attacks. That is why we think Al Ittihad could build a lead before half-time. A prediction of an away win alone does not tell us what margin the market expects.
Our correct-score prediction is Neftchi Fergana 1-3 Al Ittihad. We expect Al Ittihad to score first between the 25th and 45th minutes with a wide break and cutback, then go two goals ahead. Neftchi Fergana should push forward after the break and pull one back from a cross or corner, before an Al Ittihad substitute adds another. In Neftchi Fergana’s recent heavy defeats, the gap was already in place by half-time, and their options for a response may be limited today if Marusic and Forss cannot play. If their replacement midfielders protect the defence and the first half ends 0-0, Al Ittihad’s difficulty creating chances inside the box in this competition could come back into focus, making a close finish more likely.
