[2026-27 AFC Champions League] Al Ahli Saudi vs Al Gharafa SC: Match Preview Kick-off: October 26, 16:00 UTC
Al Ahli Saudi host Al Gharafa SC at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah on October 27 at 1:00 a.m. Korea time, in the third round of the AFC Champions League Elite West Region league stage. Two-time defending champions Al Ahli Saudi are looking for their first home win in this campaign, while Al Gharafa SC, who have lost their opening two matches, need to avoid a third straight defeat. The visitors’ early attack and the home side’s second-half substitutions could shape the match.
1. Match overview and team form
Al Ahli Saudi drew 1-1 with Pakhtakor in their first home match of the competition, then won 3-1 away to Al Wasl. Al Gharafa SC lost 1-2 away to Al Hilal and by the same score at home to Esteghlal. Al Ahli Saudi have four points from two matches and sit fifth, while Al Gharafa SC are 13th without a point. In their domestic leagues, Al Ahli Saudi are fifth in the Saudi Pro League with 21 points from 10 matches, while Al Gharafa SC have six points through seven rounds of the Qatar Stars League and sit 10th.
Competition record after two matches: Al Ahli Saudi, 1 win, 1 draw, 4 goals scored, 2 conceded; Al Gharafa SC, 2 losses, 2 goals scored, 4 conceded Last 10 competitive matches: Al Ahli Saudi, 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 26 goals scored, 14 conceded; Al Gharafa SC, 1 win, 4 draws, 5 losses, 17 goals scored, 22 conceded End of last season: Al Ahli Saudi, 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 7 matches, 16 goals scored, 5 conceded; Al Gharafa SC, 1 win, 2 draws, 5 losses in 8 matches, 10 goals scored, 18 conceded
Al Ahli Saudi have won four competitive matches in a row against Al Fateh, Al Wasl, Al Fayha and Al Khaleej. They scored 14 goals across those games, and beat Al Wasl away by making the most of corners and their second-half attack despite having less possession. The other three opponents, though, are lower down the Saudi league table. Before that run, Al Ahli Saudi lost 0-3 away to Al Hilal and 2-3 away to Al Qadsiah. The winning streak shows their attacking quality, but it is hard to assume they will create as many chances against stronger opponents.
Al Gharafa SC are without a win in their last four competitive matches, with two draws and two losses. In their most recent match, against Al Ahli Doha, they led 2-0 at half-time through goals from Seydou Sano and Yacine Brahimi, but conceded twice after the break to draw 2-2. They also lost 1-2 to Esteghlal despite recording 19 shots and 9 on target. The winner came just after the equaliser, following a poor back pass from Ayoub Al Ouwi. Creating chances and protecting a lead remain separate challenges for this team.
The teams’ home and away records over their last 20 matches also differ. Al Ahli Saudi have won 7 and drawn 2 of their last 9 at home, scoring 27 and conceding 4. Al Gharafa SC have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 away, scoring 13 and conceding 27. They have not kept a clean sheet in any of those 10 away matches. However, 7 of the 9 teams Al Ahli Saudi faced at home were lower or mid-table sides in the Saudi league, and both draws came against continental opponents. Home form alone does not tell us how large the winning margin might be today.
There is also reason to look at the end of last season alongside this season’s form. Al Ahli Saudi won 5, drew 1 and lost 1 of their final 7 matches last season, while Al Gharafa SC won 1, drew 2 and lost 5 in their last 8 and failed to keep a clean sheet in any of them. But Al Ahli Saudi were then coached by Matthias Jaissle, while Marino Pusic took charge in August. Al Gharafa SC’s record from the end of last season does not include contributions from Ismaël Bennacer or Frank Magri, who joined this season. Those past results offer clues about defensive tendencies, but do not directly reflect the current squads.
The biggest change to the starting line-up is the absence of Al Ahli Saudi centre-back Merih Demiral. He has started all 10 of the team’s league and continental matches this season, but will miss out with an ankle injury. The player partnering Roger Ibañez in central defence will depend on the starting line-up announcement. Edouard Mendy and Wenderson Galeno have trained, but their availability will be decided just before kick-off. Al Gharafa SC will be without Bennacer, who is suspended after being sent off against Al Hilal. They already faced Esteghlal without him, and will again need a midfield combination that can move the ball safely.
The schedule brings different demands for the two teams. Al Ahli Saudi have around 70 hours to recover after facing Al Khaleej, but then have two away matches against Al Shabab and Al Sadd. Al Gharafa SC have had around 95 hours since their last league match, but arrived in Jeddah on October 25 and had one training session at the stadium. Neither coach has announced plans to rotate. Pusic has previously left some first-choice players on the bench against Pakhtakor, so the line-up could affect when Al Ahli Saudi’s attack hits top gear.
2. Match-up analysis
Al Gharafa SC coach Pedro Martins said before the match that his side need to make their attack count. On their last two trips to Jeddah, Al Gharafa SC pushed forward early and created shooting chances. In February 2025, they took the lead from a penalty but lost 2-4. In October that year, they failed to take their early chances and went on to lose 0-4. Al Ahli Saudi won both matches, but Matthias Jaissle was in charge at the time. Players who contributed to those goals, including Riyad Mahrez and Franck Kessié, have since left. Those four-goal wins do not tell us what to expect from the current attack.
Al Ahli Saudi now build their attack around Ivan Toney in Pusic’s 4-2-3-1. Toney has started all 11 of their league and continental matches this season and scored 13 goals. When he drops outside the penalty area to receive the ball, Francisco Trincão and the attacking midfielders make runs beyond him. Trincão set up the opener with a corner against Al Wasl, then cut in from the right to score the winner himself. If an Al Gharafa SC centre-back follows Toney out, a second-line attacker can use the space behind. If the defender holds position, Toney can receive the ball and link up the attack.
Al Gharafa SC’s midfield work on the ball will matter when they push forward. Against Esteghlal, without Bennacer, they kept attacking and found an equaliser, but conceded the winner immediately after a mistake in a back pass. Al Ahli Saudi have also turned a goalkeeper’s error into two goals against Al Fateh. If Al Gharafa SC commit players forward and lose the ball, they will need to watch for a counter led by Toney and finished by Trincão or a left-sided attacking midfielder. The way Al Gharafa SC conceded three goals in nine minutes after central midfielder Fabricio Díaz went off injured in last October’s meeting also showed how important it is for them to keep possession in midfield.
Al Gharafa SC have routes to goal too. Brahimi crossed for Magri against Esteghlal and delivered the free-kick that led to Ferjani Sassi’s equaliser. Al Ahli Saudi conceded twice to headers from crosses in their match against Mamelodi Sundowns. This time they will have to defend the middle of the penalty area without Demiral. Ibañez scored with a header from a corner against Al Wasl, but we will have to see how the new centre-back pairing handles Brahimi’s delivery and the movement of Magri and Sassi.
Both teams’ second-half management will matter even after the first goal. In matches with a recorded half-time score in the data centre, Al Ahli Saudi scored 15 and conceded 4 in the second half across 9 games, while Al Gharafa SC scored 5 and conceded 12 across 8. Artem Bondarenko scored in the second half against Al Khaleej, while Firas Al-Buraikan came off the bench to score late against Pakhtakor and Al Wasl. Al Gharafa SC, meanwhile, let a two-goal lead slip in the second half against Al Ahli Doha. These figures combine matches from two seasons and opponents of varying quality, so they do not predict when goals will come today. They do show that Al Ahli Saudi have substitutes who can change their attack even if the first half is close.
If Al Gharafa SC score first, the match could take a different shape. Al Ahli Saudi may have to keep the ball for long spells against a visiting team that adds defenders. Al Ahli Saudi did not score until the 85th minute against Pakhtakor, eventually drawing 1-1 with a stoppage-time equaliser. Their first-half attack could look different if Toney or Trincão start on the bench. For Al Gharafa SC to keep the game close, they would need to take the lead from a Brahimi set piece and then avoid mistakes in central defence and midfield after the break.
3. Verdict and conclusion
Al Gharafa SC are likely to push forward and create the first shooting chances, but we think an Al Ahli Saudi win is the more likely outcome. Martins’ emphasis on getting forward could create chances for the visitors, while also giving the home side opportunities to counter when Al Gharafa SC lose the ball in midfield without Bennacer. Al Gharafa SC’s recent failure to protect favourable positions in both continental and league matches adds to the challenge. Al Ahli Saudi can call on Toney and Trincão in attack, as well as Bondarenko and Al-Buraikan off the bench in the second half.
The market also favours Al Ahli Saudi, but there is room to differ on the total goals given the teams’ contrasting away and defensive records. The market leans slightly towards a lower-scoring match. We expect more goals than the market does because Al Gharafa SC’s forward approach and midfield without Bennacer can create chances for the home side, while Demiral’s absence raises the chance of Brahimi’s set pieces producing a goal for the visitors. We see a scoring route for each team.
Our score prediction is Al Ahli Saudi 3-1 or 4-1 Al Gharafa SC. The likely pattern is that Al Ahli Saudi withstand the visitors’ early attack, take the lead from a set piece or an error at the back, and then get a further goal involving a substitute after the break. Al Gharafa SC could score once from a Brahimi delivery, but keeping players forward after that may leave more space for the home side. The main factor that could change our view is Al Gharafa SC scoring early from a set piece and then keeping their central defence and midfield secure through the second half.
