Two matches where the headline gap and the structural gap point different ways. At the Garden, the Sixers' new star group can match the Knicks in the starter minutes, but the minutes when Embiid sits look like a structural hole. In Yamagata, the table says the home side defend far better, but on chance quality the two defences are almost identical, and the difference is finishing.
Knicks v Sixers. The champions bring back the same coach and the same starting five: Brunson, Bridges, Hart, Anunoby and Towns. Philadelphia have a new top end in Maxey, Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron and Embiid, but that five shared the floor for only about one half in preseason. In their one full-starter preseason game the Sixers' offense lived at the free-throw line while their threes went cold, and they turned it over 18 times.
The matchup that tips it is behind Embiid. Hukporti, Barlow and Fall are out, and Bona and Wade are doubtful, so the Sixers' backup center minutes go to Jabari Walker or a small lineup. Against Towns and Drummond on the glass, and a Knicks bench that already knows its roles, those 14 to 18 minutes are where New York should build a lead. Brunson against Maxey also leans to the home side. Embiid hunting fouls on Towns is Philly's best weapon, and their stars can close a gap late, so I expect a Knicks win by single digits rather than a blowout. That's why I'm siding with New York to win.
Yamagata v Sapporo. Yamagata have the ball and the shots, but they convert only 7% of them, one of the worst rates in J2. Their excellent goals-against record rests on opponents converting just 5% while Yamagata allow the second-most shots in the league. Sapporo are the mirror image: they allow few shots but concede a high share of them. On expected goals against, the two sides are level.
The new fact is Yamagata's centre-back Morioka, who had played every league minute and went off injured last weekend. That weakens the back line exactly where Sapporo have routes: set pieces and players cutting inside, which make up nearly half of their goals, while almost half of Yamagata's concessions come from set pieces. Sapporo's away attack has been thin and Yamagata are at home, so this should be a tight, low-scoring game, likely level at the break, with the late stages deciding it. When Yamagata have fallen behind at home, their finishing has not brought them back. That's why I'm siding with Sapporo to avoid defeat.
