Santa Clara's compact centre and Benfica's sustained box pressure set up a test of chance quality as much as territory. PSG's pressure will challenge Lyon's first pass, while Lyon have wide outlets into the space left by advanced fullbacks. Sevilla and Osasuna each have a distinct route from a midfield recovery into the opposing box, so the second ball matters at both ends.
Santa Clara have limited Braga and Rio Ave to few clear shots, then used Ferreira and Ribeiro to release Vinícius, Brenner or Paciência. Benfica can keep the ball near the box through Aursnes, their fullbacks and Pavlidis, but Santa Clara's central screen has recently made opponents work for a clean finish. Djé's reported suspension follows the Mafra cup match; Vasconcelos has recently scored and supplied a cup goal, though the starting midfield remains unannounced. Benfica's listed missing players were already absent against Omonia, while Pavlidis played and scored there before travelling for this match. I expect Benfica to press for long spells and Santa Clara to protect the middle and find occasional outlets. I'm siding with Santa Clara to keep the match close.
PSG's Vitinha and João Neves can recover the second ball and release Doué or Hakimi into the final third. After Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia and Marquinhos left the Barcelona match injured, PSG still found goals through a corner, Vitinha and a Hakimi combination; those three are now marked out, and Mendes missed that game too. Lyon's Šulc missed Hoffenheim after scoring against Nice, while Nakamura played in Europe but remains suspended domestically. Lyon lost central balls and created little at Hoffenheim, so PSG's pressure should keep supplying runners even after the first goal. I'm siding with PSG to win decisively.
Sevilla's press and Fofana's carries have given Ure and the wide runners direct box entries. Osasuna can answer by contesting Budimir's first ball and passing the second contact to Rubén García or Dubasin, who supplied chances against Racing without Oroz; Osasuna also finished an open-play move and a recycled corner at Betis. Marcao and Sierra remain out for Sevilla, while the returning Stassin played limited minutes against Real Madrid; Osasuna's official squad still omits Oroz, Herrando and Del Castillo. Sevilla should press the first pass, and Osasuna's direct outlet can bring its own chances as the game opens. I'm siding with both Sevilla and Osasuna to find the net.
