Sevilla's pressure and Osasuna's direct forward supply meet at the first contested ball. The next pass matters as much as the initial duel, because both sides can turn a loose clearance into another attack. Osasuna's recent box access gives this contest more balance than a simple home siege.
Budimir provides the forward reference, with Dubasin and Rubén García supporting and Muñoz and Moncayola close enough to contest the next phase. Against Racing, Osasuna repeatedly reached the box while allowing very little access to their own. Arrasate has only one completed match in this return spell, so the useful evidence is those connections rather than the coaching change itself.
Sevilla have their own direct threat through Ure's pressure, Fofana's carries and Correia's movement. Their Levante performance showed the attacking benefit, but the replies they conceded before the dismissal also exposed the work needed after taking a lead. Osasuna's turnover and corner-second-phase goals at Betis provide additional routes into that contest.
Sevilla's squad returns add choices, but García Plaza has said several unnamed players can manage only short spells. Sierra's wide role still needs replacing. Osasuna's current absentees were already missing from the Racing performance, leaving the same main forward and midfield connections available.
I expect Sevilla to press early and Osasuna to seek Budimir sooner, with nearby support competing for the clearance. Through the changes, that direct supply and the next delivery give Osasuna a way to remain competitive without controlling possession. That's why I'm siding with Osasuna to come away unbeaten.
