Yamagata's recent scoreless games still contained a steady supply of chances. Sapporo have found direct routes through Omori and moments from Aoki, but their latest attacks have produced fewer clear openings. The key collision is Yamagata's forward recovery and runs behind the wingbacks against Sapporo's direct escape and three-centre-back cover. Set pieces and second balls will matter at both ends.
Yokouchi's side made 16 shots and 14 open-play box entries at Fujieda after also creating chances against Sendai. Takahashi gives those recoveries a central target, and Sugii's left-side delivery tests the seam beside Sapporo's wingbacks. Sapporo kept Akita scoreless, yet Akita made 17 shots and created several clear chances, so Yamagata's route into the area looks repeatable.
Omori can hold up the first direct ball for Aoki or Uchida, and Nishino provides a corner threat. Morioka left Yamagata's last match injured; Lee replaced him for the rest of that game alongside Sakamoto, who played the full match. Shirai's calf injury was confirmed before Sapporo's latest match and he did not play, while Omori, Aoki and the other main attackers did start.
I expect Yamagata to press for entries early and keep testing Tagawa after the break. Sapporo's direct balls will demand careful second-ball defending, but Yamagata's recent chance supply has been stronger than Sapporo's and reaches the spaces this defense has been giving up. That's why I'm siding with Montedio Yamagata to win this match.
