This match is a contest between two different clocks. Mainz do their damage early, through transitions and second balls, while Werder do theirs late, through crosses and set pieces aimed at Fullkrug. The headline about Werder's long absence list does not touch their starting XI. On that reading, the price treats Mainz as a clearer home favourite than the matchup supports.
Start with the absences. Almost everyone on Werder's list already missed the Paderborn match, and the one new name was an unused substitute there. So Werder bring the same XI that has scored in all six league games and come from behind three times. What the absences really cost is depth on the bench, not quality on the pitch.
The key matchup is Fullkrug and the crosses from deep against a Mainz back three without Kohr. Fullkrug has scored in four of the six games, and the Mainz coach has named this exact route as the danger. At the other end, Becker's pace against Werder's back four is real: Werder have conceded first in five of six games, usually before the half-hour.
Mainz at home are a different story from Mainz on the road. They have not won at their own ground yet. When Paderborn sat deep there, Mainz took 21 shots and scored none. Their goals come from open, early games, and their home matches have leaked second-half goals.
So the flow I expect is a bright Mainz start, maybe a lead, and then a second half in which Werder's crossing volume grows while Mainz defend their box. Eleven of Werder's twelve goals have come after the hour. A level game, or a late Werder equaliser, is the natural shape here.
That's why I'm siding with Werder Bremen not to lose this one. A draw is enough for me, and the late phase belongs to them.
