Two home sides facing opponents who struggle to create much, and both opponents are patched up at the back. Neither game looks like a shootout; both look like the home team slowly leaning on a weaker visitor.
Sheffield United against Derby: Sheffield are a direct, set-piece side who sit off the ball and live on transitions. Their own numbers are not pretty, but Derby are worse: about 0.8 goals a game, one win in eleven, and a back line that has been missing the same centre-backs for four straight matches, including the 1-4 loss at QPR. The first-choice goalkeeper is now out too. Sheffield won 1-0 at Bristol City with their own absences, so the injuries hurt them less. The old head-to-head losses came from different squads. That's why I'm siding with Sheffield to win.
Rayo Vallecano against Elche: Rayo are a different team at home, unbeaten in eight in the longer window, and they out-shoot most visitors. Elche make around one expected goal a game, rarely test keepers, and have one win in nine. Rayo are without their starting keeper and a centre-back, but those absences were already in place at Getafe, where they still produced 21 shots. The suspension of their holding midfielder is new, yet Elche's low shot volume gives that less bite. I'm siding with Rayo at home.
