Paderborn are the home side, but the chance numbers do not back them. Hamburg survive on transitions and a compact box, and Paderborn's midfield is badly thinned.
Paderborn's expected-goal difference was negative in all five listed games, averaging roughly minus 0.9, while Hamburg's averages about minus 0.5 over eight. Paderborn are missing three midfielders and conceded heavy chance quality in their last two games. Hamburg are without Vuskovic, but they have already won games without him on modest chances, so they do not need volume.
I expect Paderborn to hold a bit more ball with little penetration while Hamburg wait and strike on turnovers. Paderborn have drawn four of their last ten, so I'm asking only that Hamburg do not lose, and a level game just returns the stake. That's why I'm siding with Hamburg.
