Gebze have a settled six and Sungurlu are still searching for one. Two weeks ago Gebze's exact starting group beat Sungurlu in the cup by the same wide score in every set, and the same group then won the league opener away from home. Since then Sungurlu have reshuffled half their lineup. Gebze's missing import is a headline, but it isn't new: he wasn't in either of those matches.
Gebze's spine is Finnish setter Tervaportti feeding Marttila, Sotola and Gökgöz, and the same six started both competitive matches we can see. Their serve gave Onikisubat trouble in the opener, and the cup meeting showed a steady, even gap over Sungurlu, not one bad set.
Sungurlu have real talent. They have American opposite Ensing, Cuban outside hitter Uriarte Mestre and national-team setter Yatgın. But their cup six never got near Gebze in any set, and their league six fell well behind in the first two sets at home to Istanbul BB before stealing the third.
The absence changes nothing against the picture we already have, because Sotola has covered that role in both matches. The real unknown is Sungurlu's new six and whether Ensing starts. In the cup he did start, and it didn't close the gap.
Gebze should control the first two sets through serve pressure on a reshuffled reception. Sungurlu's realistic window is a set in the middle of the match.
That's why I'm siding with Gebze to win clearly at home, with a sweep like the cup meeting as the main picture.
