City arrive with a perfect start and the best numbers in the league, but this fixture has not followed the table at Villa Park. Villa's underlying chance difference is not far from City's, and City have been leaking goals on transitions.
Villa beat City at home in October last year and again in May this year, and they come in unbeaten across competitions. City will have the ball for long spells, but they are without a key forward option and a couple of players are doubtful, including full-back cover.
Villa are short at the back too, with both full-backs out and a midfielder missing, so City's wide runners and Haaland will get chances. The question is whether Villa's compact block, counters and set pieces in the wind can keep the game level or tilt it their way.
I expect a tight game that turns on the first goal. That's why I'm siding with Aston Villa not to lose at home.
