A bottom-of-the-table home side with a leaking defence and a depleted midfield against a possession-based side from the top half. The question is whether the visitors can turn control into a goal margin.
Preston have conceded in every one of their last twenty league games, 2.3 a game over the last ten, and they score under one a game. They sit on about 40 percent of the ball, and their midfielders McCann, Clarke and Gibbs have been out for weeks, which removes their ball-carrying and control. Their expected goals are a bit above their actual goals, so a goal is plausible, but they have rarely shown they can come back.
West Brom hold around 55 percent possession and score in most games. They are missing Johnston and Galves, yet they have been without them for three matches and won the last two, the latest with 25 shots and over three expected goals against Blackburn. Preston's home games have been closer than their away blowouts, which is why a draw is a real route, but the shape favours the visitors. That's why I'm siding with West Brom to win.
