Elversberg and Mainz both look like low-and-high teams on paper, but they are only low against a certain kind of opponent. Elversberg go blunt when a side sits deep and hands them the ball, and Mainz go quiet against passive teams. Neither of them is that kind of opponent for the other. This is a meeting of two open sides, and both their records against open sides tell the same story.
Elversberg under Vincent Wagner don't need the ball. They had 40% of it at home to Augsburg and still scored three inside the first half hour. They hurt teams with direct running, one-on-ones and attackers off the bench: Krattenmacher and Schmahl have scored late goals. Their games against open mid-table sides, Gladbach and Augsburg, both finished 4-3. Their blanks came at Union and Schalke and in the cup against Darmstadt, all against teams that sat back.
Mainz under Urs Fischer play a back three with attacking wing-backs, average around 18 shots a game and still concede a lot. They have given away penalties and early goals at home, and they have played the whole season without Kohr, their screening midfielder. Every game they played against a side that attacks them directly (HSV, Frankfurt, Gladbach, Leverkusen, Bremen) produced a pile of goals.
The key matchup is Caci, the Mainz left wing-back behind most of their goals, against Elversberg's right side. Gyamerah went off injured at Leipzig and is listed as missing, Pinckert is doubtful, and the stand-in there has been Sirch. At the other end, Elversberg's runners go at a Mainz back three that has conceded twice or more in five of seven league games.
The flow should be lively early, since both sides have a habit of goals in the opening half hour. Whoever scores first, the other side has to open up, and that suits both of these teams. Both played cup ties on Tuesday, and tired legs late on tend to open games like this rather than close them. That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends in this one.
