Two cup nights, both shaped by what one side does with the ball against a team that has to come at it. In Columbus, the hosts' possession game runs into St. Louis's man-marking press, and that press now has to work in front of a midfield missing both its regular central pieces. In São Paulo, Palmeiras carry a one-goal lead into a second leg against a Fluminense side that keeps the ball but rarely turns it into clear chances. In both games, the home team's own measured content is what I'm building on.
Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City. Under interim coach Courtois, Columbus build through possession: Habroune arrives from midfield as a free eight and has scored in three straight, Mendez and Santiago Rodriguez create, and Josef Martinez leads the line. At home that has produced real volume lately: 33 shots and 3.82 xG against Charlotte while allowing 0.71, then 1.87 to 0.27 against Inter Miami. St. Louis under Damet win with a man-to-man press, quick transitions and a hot front group, but they also give up plenty of shots, around 16 to 17 a game.
The key zone is the middle. Durkin, St. Louis's deep distributor, and Wallem both went off injured on 10-14 and missed the trip to Minnesota. In that match St. Louis were outshot 27 to 15 and let a two-goal half-time lead slip. That's only one game, but it points at exactly the zone where Habroune and Mendez arrive. St. Louis still have real routes without them, and without the cup-tied Navarro: the press, plus Becher, Holse, Jeong and Matan, who scored all three in the semi-final win at Colorado. A turnover forced from the Columbus build-out is their best chance.
I expect St. Louis to be at their best early, pressing the Columbus keeper and back line. If Columbus get through those first waves, their possession settles in the St. Louis half and the depleted midfield has to keep tracking runners. In a one-off final with extra time to come, a level game late on may well stay level, so I'm siding with Columbus while keeping the draw covered.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense. Palmeiras won the first leg 2-1 at the Maracana with only 30 percent of the ball, out-creating Fluminense 1.18 to 0.48 in xG. A draw or any win sends them through, so Abel Ferreira's side can sit in a deep back five and break into the space behind Fluminense's attacking full-backs, as they did for the opener.
The supplier list has Gomez and Giay suspended, but that ban was in the league and they served it on 17 October. The first-leg defensive unit of Gomez, Barboza and Murilo with Giay and Piquerez is back, and it has kept 7 clean sheets in 10 and allowed little at home lately. Fluminense rely on Guga's crossing, Hulk shooting from range and set pieces, and John Kennedy is still out and Cano doubtful, just as in the first leg. That makes the first leg a like-for-like test, and the aerial back three won it, beaten only by a late cross and a goalkeeping slip.
I expect a cagey first hour with Fluminense holding the ball and Palmeiras waiting. If it stays goalless, Palmeiras are through. If they score on the break, Fluminense need three. That's why I'm on Palmeiras keeping Fluminense off the scoresheet.
