[2026-27 UEFA Europa League] TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais preview and analysis Kick-off: October 22, 19:00 UTC
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and Olympique Lyonnais meet at the SNP Arena in Sinsheim for Matchday 3 of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Hoffenheim, bottom of the table after two defeats, need their first points. Lyon have won both matches and sit eighth, aiming to hold on to a place in the automatic round of 16 spots. This is a meeting between the hosts’ attack and the visitors’ transition play.
1. Match overview and team form
Hoffenheim lost 2-0 to OFI Crete and 3-2 to Beşiktaş, leaving them 30th in the Europa League. Lyon beat Anderlecht 2-1 and Crystal Palace 3-2 to move up to eighth. The top eight in the league phase advance directly to the round of 16, while teams in 25th or lower are eliminated. Their domestic league starts have also been very different: Hoffenheim are 14th in the Bundesliga, while Lyon lead Ligue 1. Still, league position alone does not tell us how potent either side has been in attack. According to the data centre, Hoffenheim have scored 17 goals in nine matches this season and Lyon 24 in 13, giving them similar goals-per-game rates. The difference is at the other end: Hoffenheim have conceded 2.11 goals per game, compared with 1.0 for Lyon.
Season record Europa League: Hoffenheim 2 defeats, 2 goals scored and 5 conceded / Lyon 2 wins, 5 goals scored and 3 conceded Domestic league position: Hoffenheim 14th in the Bundesliga / Lyon 1st in Ligue 1 All competitive matches: Hoffenheim 3 wins and 6 defeats in 9 matches / Lyon 7 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats in 13 matches
Hoffenheim ended a four-match losing run with a 2-1 away win over Borussia Mönchengladbach. Alexander Prass made his first start of the season alongside Leon Avdullahu in midfield, scoring once and assisting another. Hoffenheim limited their opponents to an expected goals figure of 0.47, according to the data centre. Their opponents, though, were bottom of the table with no points before the match. Coach Christian Ilzer said after the win that his side still had more to prove. Prass’s midfield role helped link the attack, but one match is not enough to conclude that Hoffenheim’s defensive problems are solved.
Hoffenheim have scored twice in each of their four home matches this season. Their only win was a 2-1 result against Stuttgart; the other three all ended in 3-2 defeats. They have conceded 10 goals across those four games despite continuing to score. Against Beşiktaş, Fisnik Asllani made it 2-2 in the 68th minute, but Hoffenheim conceded on a counter-attack straight after a throw-in in the 72nd, then again in the 79th after a long pass and a run in behind. Bernardo’s red card affected the Hamburg match, so the defeats cannot all be put down to the same defensive issue. Still, Hoffenheim have not turned their home goals into wins.
Lyon have recorded six wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 10 competitive matches. They beat Nice 2-1 in their most recent game despite making eight changes to the starting XI that faced Crystal Palace. After falling behind, Pavel Šulc pounced on a loose ball after Julien Duranville’s shot was spilled by the goalkeeper. Four minutes later, Tanner Tessmann headed in a cross from Zakaria Atekame to complete the turnaround. Lyon were fortunate in the second half, though, as two Nice headers struck the woodwork. They also led Crystal Palace 2-0 at half-time before conceding twice, then held on for a 3-2 win thanks to Šulc’s winner and a late save from Dominik Greif. Lyon’s winning run has featured quick goals and good finishing, but they have not consistently shut down opponents once taking the lead.
Šulc, who had been providing that finishing touch, is out of the travelling squad with a knee problem. Lois Openda, who is dangerous with runs in behind, is also unavailable with a fractured fibula. Coach Paulo Fonseca had planned to use Šulc, but said injury made a start for 18-year-old Rémi Himbert the best solution. It has not been announced whether Himbert will play through the middle or out wide. Lyon won their last two matches without Openda, against Crystal Palace and Nice, so his absence is not a new change compared with those results. The new vacancy is Šulc’s role finishing moves when attacks arrive in the box from the wings.
Hoffenheim are also without Albian Hajdari, Patrick Wimmer and Nathan De Cat. Hajdari’s absence reduces their options at centre-back and left-back, while Wimmer’s absence leaves them with one fewer attacking substitute. Bernardo, Mats Rots and Prass are among the candidates at left-back. If Prass moves there, Hoffenheim will lose the midfield pairing that worked against Mönchengladbach.
The sides have met three times in European competition, and all three matches ended in draws with both teams scoring. The most recent meeting, in Sinsheim in November 2024, finished 2-2. Fonseca was not Lyon’s coach at the time, and Ilzer had only joined Hoffenheim that month, so those previous draws offer little basis for predicting this result. Both teams played domestic matches on October 18 local time, but Lyon rested most of their regular starters against Nice. Hoffenheim face Leverkusen next, while Lyon have Paris Saint-Germain to come. Rain and strong winds are not forecast around kick-off, so the weather gives us no reason to expect either side’s style to benefit.
2. Matchup analysis
If Hoffenheim keep the ball for long spells at home and bring their full-backs into the attack, Lyon can look to break forward as soon as they win it back. Hoffenheim had 60.5% possession and 34 shots across their two Europa League matches, but only eight shots on target and two goals. When possession does not lead to shots that test the goalkeeper, they need to protect the space behind their full-backs. The counter-attack conceded soon after equalising against Beşiktaş showed the danger. Ilzer has also said he is wary of Lyon’s attacks after regaining possession.
Lyon’s most direct route to goal could be down Hoffenheim’s left. Right winger Ernest Nuamah is the team’s leading scorer this season with five goals, while Atekame, on the same side, delivered the cross for Tessmann’s winner against Nice. If Nuamah drives inside or Atekame pushes on down the outside, Hoffenheim’s left-back will have to deal with both movements. Bernardo was sent off for two yellow cards against Hamburg, while Rots will need to defend the space behind him if he loses the ball after joining the attack. If Prass starts at left-back, Hoffenheim will lose him from midfield. Whoever starts in that position will face Lyon’s right-sided attack directly.
Even if Lyon make progress down the wing, they still need to find the finish. With Openda and Šulc missing when Atekame’s cross reaches the box, Nuamah may need to shoot himself or second-line players such as Tolisso and Tessmann will need to arrive in the area on time. Tessmann’s winner against Nice showed how that can work. There is not enough evidence to know whether Himbert can reproduce Šulc’s penalty-box finishing if he starts. We should separate Lyon’s chance of getting at Hoffenheim in transition from their chance of turning those openings into goals.
At the other end, Vladimir Coufal and Banzoumana Touré will take on Lyon left-back Abner Vinícius. If Touré receives the ball inside while Coufal pushes forward on the outside, Abner’s response will matter. Keito Nakamura can track back, but if he drops deep, Lyon’s own left-sided counter-attacks will start further from goal. If Abner and Atekame start again, this will be their third start in eight days. Their response could shape how well Lyon hold a lead when Hoffenheim bring on fresh attackers and keep pressing down the wings in the second half.
Set pieces give Hoffenheim another route to goal. In their last two home matches, Coufal’s corners led to a Koki Machida header and an own goal. Lyon conceded after a corner against Crystal Palace, and two Nice headers struck the woodwork in the second half of their most recent match. Hoffenheim can create chances from corners even if they struggle to find the final pass in open play. If Lyon take the lead and focus more on defending, their ability to deal with Hoffenheim’s late pressure and set pieces will matter. Fonseca said after the Crystal Palace match that his side had tried to protect the result in the second half instead of controlling the ball.
Prass’s position could affect both teams’ attacking chances. If he starts alongside Avdullahu, Hoffenheim can try to play through midfield with short passes, as they did against Mönchengladbach. If they can evade Lyon’s press and cut down on turnovers, Lyon will have fewer chances to break. If Prass starts away from midfield, Hoffenheim may instead use the Avdullahu and Wouter Burger pairing from the Beşiktaş match. One good midfield performance against Mönchengladbach is not enough to say Prass will also neutralise Lyon’s press.
The managers’ decisions could come into sharper focus late on. Ilzer has brought on two attacking players together in the 60th minute or later in previous matches, and he can call on Andrej Kramarić and Adam Hložek again. If Lyon lead and focus on defending, Hoffenheim can add attackers and target corners. But if the hosts keep pushing both full-backs forward after equalising, they will give Nuamah and Nakamura more chances to break. Lyon also lack Šulc, who scored the winner against Crystal Palace, so adding another goal will not be straightforward. Both sides will need to manage the threat of a counter-attack, which makes it hard to assume that the first goal will decide the match.
3. Verdict and prediction
Our predicted score is 1-2 or 1-1 from the home team’s perspective. We lean towards Hoffenheim having the ball and attacking, with Lyon winning it back and using the right flank and quick forward runs to score first. Hoffenheim can look for an equaliser through Coufal’s corners and their second-half attack. If the hosts then keep pushing their full-backs forward, a second Lyon counter-attack could make it 1-2. If Prass links play from midfield alongside Avdullahu and reduces Lyon’s counter-attacking chances, 1-1 becomes more likely.
The conditions on both sides shape that forecast. Hoffenheim have scored twice in every home match but lost three of the four, and their opponents today can attack the space they leave when they lose possession. Lyon rested most of their regular starters against Nice ahead of this away trip, but Šulc and Openda’s absences could limit how many of their chances they convert. Hoffenheim’s set pieces and the defensive workload Lyon may face late on also make a bigger away win difficult to predict.
The market favours Hoffenheim at home, reflecting their scoring record and the absences among Lyon’s forwards. We agree that Lyon’s penalty-box finishing has been weakened. But Hoffenheim’s home goals have not produced home wins so far, and the space they leave in defence when they attack matches up with Lyon’s transition game. The key difference between our view and the market is whether Hoffenheim can stop Lyon’s counter-attacks after scoring. If Ilzer leaves one full-back in a defensive position after an equaliser and cuts down Lyon’s second transition opportunity, our lean towards a one-goal away win could shift towards a draw.
