Two cup nights where one side arrives with its spine intact and the other has lost the players who make its main route work. In Columbus, a home side that builds pressure through shot volume meets a St. Louis team without its striker link and both first-choice central midfielders. In São Paulo, Fluminense are forced to chase a tie against the exact defensive shape that held them to almost nothing a week ago. In both matches the game state is likely to push the weaker-equipped side into the kind of match it handles worst.
Columbus win at home by keeping the ball and piling up attempts. Against Charlotte they had 33 shots, with Habroune drifting as a free number eight and Mendez and Rodriguez supplying. St. Louis have lived on fast starts, and almost all of those early goals went through Navarro, who scored or assisted in each of their last four games. He is cup-tied for the final.
The bigger hole is in the St. Louis midfield. Durkin and Wallem, the two who drove their transitions, are both out with head injuries and missed the last game at Minnesota. With that rebuilt pivot, St. Louis led 2-0 at half-time and then gave up 27 shots and lost. Columbus are already used to playing without Camacho and Abou Ali, and they won their last two without them while conceding once.
I expect Columbus to take territory from around the twentieth minute and push St. Louis back towards Becher and Holse on the counter. A first Columbus goal forces St. Louis to open up, and the home bench can add more late. That's why I'm siding with Columbus.
In the Libertadores semi-final, Palmeiras carry a one-goal lead from the Maracanã. Abel Ferreira's side won the first leg without the ball: a deep back three and Marlon Freitas screening held Fluminense to a tiny chance total from heavy possession, and the goals came from a transition and a late second wave off the bench.
Now Fluminense have to come forward with fewer forwards. John Kennedy is out, Cano is a doubt and Arana is suspended, so Renê returns on the left. Palmeiras' centre-backs Gómez and Giay served their ban in the league and are back. Marcão has promised more attacking players through the middle, which leaves even more space behind for Flaco López, Arias and Piquerez.
Fluminense's real route is a cross or a set piece aimed at their headers. Their creation through the middle is thin, though, and every minute they push gives Palmeiras' fresh wide players room late on, which is how the first leg was settled. That's why I'm backing Palmeiras to win the second leg as well.
