Columbus and St. Louis meet in a final shaped by the first pass beyond pressure and the runners arriving after it. The Crew have recently created through central combinations, high regains, wide delivery and corners. Palmeiras and Fluminense face a different contest: an aggregate lead allows selective defending, while the chasing side must turn possession into better access to the box.
For Columbus, Rodríguez and Méndez give Habroune players to combine with before he attacks the next space. His goals and regains against Charlotte and his involvement at Orlando show why St. Louis must track more than the striker. Méndez's corner delivery to Tapia supplies another way through when the middle becomes crowded.
Navarro's cup ineligibility removes a player who both receives and creates, despite his involvement in the latest league match. Durkin is also listed unavailable, affecting midfield service and cover. Becher has already scored without Navarro, and rested Holse and Mățan retain an established connection with him; Wallem's availability remains unresolved. I expect the opening exchanges to test both teams' exits, with Columbus able to build attacks through the wider range of demonstrated routes. That is why I am siding with Columbus Crew.
Palmeiras' first-leg advantage came from useful chances rather than possession volume. Piquerez's low delivery found López, and a separate attack brought a save, a headed reconnection and Marlon's finish. Fluminense held much more of the ball but generated limited access inside the box, making Ganso's receiving positions and the timing of the wide deliveries central to the return match.
Guga's cross to Wesley already demonstrated Fluminense's route into that defence. Palmeiras' projected return of Gómez and Giay restores the expected defensive unit after their league absences, while López, Piquerez and Arias provide the outlet around it. Roque remains unavailable; Cano and Martinelli travelled under assessment, so travelling alone does not establish normal playing fitness.
Fluminense can begin patiently, but they must eventually seek the goal that changes the tie. That should keep the connection from Palmeiras' defensive block to López and the supporting runners relevant as the match develops. The first leg gives that sequence concrete support, which is why I am backing Palmeiras to win this match.
