Both Los Angeles home games come down to which roster has lost the pieces that matter for this specific matchup. Golden State arrives without its second creator, three wing defenders and its starting size, while the Lakers are missing only depth. Sacramento has just lost the starter who held its form together, while every Clippers absence was already part of how they played in preseason. In both games, the side with the absences not yet built into its numbers is the visitor.
Lakers vs Warriors: Golden State's two preseason wins came against a Lakers side without Doncic, so the Warriors have not yet defended Doncic and Reaves together. Without Podziemski, who scored 17 in both of those meetings, plus Butler, Moody and Porzingis, the Warriors' offence becomes Curry and role shooters. The clearest edge is at centre: Kessler against a rotation of Green, Horford and a two-way big, after he grabbed nine rebounds in fifteen minutes when these teams last met.
The Lakers' turnovers are real, but they cut both ways. Golden State gave the ball away just as often in preseason, and its one lopsided steal game came with Doncic sitting. Golden State should start well on continuity. The Lakers' paint and glass edge should build through the middle quarters, when the Warriors' thin frontcourt has to cover full minutes. That's why I'm siding with the Lakers to win.
Clippers vs Kings: Sacramento lost all five preseason games, and its worst stretches came with the starters on the floor. Their first halves were lost by about twenty points on average, and they gave up 28 to 40 free-throw attempts in every game. Now Ben Simmons, the fifth starter and their best perimeter defender, is out with an Achilles injury, and both backup centres are out too, so Sabonis has no real relief.
Garland against a guard line of a rookie and LaVine is the matchup that favours the Clippers, and their habit of getting to the line meets a defence that fouls. The turnover battle looks close to even, since the Kings take the ball away about as often as they give it back. So I expect a Clippers win by a couple of possessions, not a rout. The second quarter, when Sabonis rests, is the likely Clippers run. I'm siding with the Clippers to win by more than a single score.
