Cincinnati and D.C. both arrive with ugly recent scorelines, but the games behind them were strange in opposite ways. Cincinnati made chances against Columbus and got nothing; D.C. made its best chances early at Orlando and then faded. Their meeting could turn on whether Cincinnati's pressure keeps producing clear looks after a missed chance, and whether D.C. can make its early attacking threat last beyond one spell. The scoreboard alone is a poor scout here.
Our provisional match record has Cincinnati losing 0–2 to Columbus despite a 23–3 shot edge and 2.19–0.30 in recorded xG. D.C. lost 1–4 at Orlando with the recorded xG almost level, 2.59–2.58; most of D.C.'s figure came before the interval. That leaves a real question for this matchup: can Cincinnati turn sustained territory into goals without leaving D.C. an escape route, or can D.C. keep creating after the first wave?
