Alverca and Arouca can both begin with a quick wide attack. Alverca's recent strength has been reaching useful shooting positions without needing long possession spells. Arouca can answer through Djouahra's delivery to Barbero, making the first defensive recovery and the next box entry central to this match.
Spencer, Chiquinho and Camara have connected in two league performances with repeated shots inside the box. Alverca made those chances while limiting Famalicão and Rio Ave to little clean shooting. Arouca's Estrela win began with a sharp Barbero header, but the side later allowed substantial pressure; its Sporting response also came with a man advantage.
Baseya played the full last league win and is expected back after cup rest, while Mendes already covered in goal. The longer-term Alverca absences did not remove the attacking group that created those recent chances; Arouca's Puche also missed its last league match. Both sides played extra time in the cup, so Alverca's repeated box access and stronger defensive completion carry this decision. That's why I'm siding with Alverca.
