The talk going into this one is about Chelsea's injury list and short rest after Anfield. The structure of the match points somewhere else: Manchester United have been out-created in every one of their last five games, at both ends of the pitch. Away from home they hand over the ball, and that is the game shape in which Chelsea have looked their best under Alonso. Chelsea's absences cost them depth, a centre-forward and their first-choice keeper, but not the spine that moves the ball forward.
Across Bournemouth, Como, Leeds, Atletico and Tottenham, United never got above 1.2 expected goals and never held an opponent below 1.4. This isn't only about who they played, because the gap showed up against mid-table and European sides alike. Since Sesko went out they have had no real finisher in the middle, and they concede from set pieces and individual errors: a Leeds corner, a back-post free kick against Bournemouth, a slip, a keeper caught off his line.
Chelsea win when an opponent lets them carry the ball through Caicedo, Lavia and Palmer. They beat Bournemouth five-one with half the ball and won at Everton on 53 percent, with a clear edge in chances. The one shape they dislike is the Tottenham game, when Spurs took the ball off them. United away have sat at 39 to 45 percent possession at Leeds, Como and Atletico, which hands Chelsea exactly the role they want.
The key duels are Palmer, back from his ban, between the lines, and Neto and Rogers running at United's stand-in full-backs with Shaw and Dorgu both out. Set pieces cut both ways. Maguire and Lisandro Martinez are United's best route to a goal, and Penders has had a shaky moment from a corner. Chelsea average close to six corners a game, though, and United's marking has already failed twice in this run.
I expect Chelsea to hold the ball in the first half against a cautious United mid-block, with a set piece as the biggest lever either way. The second-half turn is the hour mark, when Alonso's changes meet United's thin bench. If Chelsea go ahead, United have to open up, and that suits the Neto and Rogers counter that finished Everton off. Joao Pedro and Penders have both been missing for Chelsea's last few games, so their absence is already part of the recent numbers. That's why I'm siding with Chelsea to win at home.
