Charlotte against Montreal is decided by one unit that changed this week: the visitors' back line and goalkeeper. In St. Louis, two patched defences meet two attacks that were barely touched by the injury list. Both matches lean on who can still create, not on the table.
Charlotte host a Montreal side that arrive without both first-choice centre-backs, Neal and Ceballos, and with a 17-year-old keeper, Keita, on only his second start after an own goal on debut. Montreal are also without Owusu, who has scored around four in ten of their goals, and their recent attacking output has been thin. Charlotte's own absences are old news, and the attack that scored eight in four matches is intact.
The key matchup is Toklomati and the wide runners, Aloko and Abada, against that new centre-back pair. Crosses and corners are where a young keeper and an unfamiliar partnership get tested most. Charlotte's reputation for leaking goals comes mostly from away matches against strong attacks like Portland and Philadelphia; at home they have conceded about a goal a game. An early goal lets them control a Montreal side that has not shown it can score twice.
In St. Louis, Portland do not park the bus away from home. Under Cifuentes they keep the ball, which hands St. Louis the open, direct game in which they scored twice in ten minutes at Minnesota, instead of the compact block that has stalled them. Portland come in without four defenders and their first-choice keeper.
At the other end, Portland's front line of Lassiter, Izoita and Velde is whole and created a flood of chances against Charlotte four days ago. St. Louis have been giving up heavy shot volume, play with backup keeper Lundt, and carry four matches in two weeks, including a 120-minute cup final. Neither side gains much from a draw, so the game should stay open late.
That's why I'm siding with Charlotte to win at home, and with goals at both ends in St. Louis.
