Sendai against Omiya is a meeting of a side built on regains and speed with a side that keeps the ball and holds a very high line. Kashima against Cerezo puts an attack that has been making chances in bulk against a visitor that has found goals very hard to come by on the road in J1. Neither match should be decided by possession alone. In both, the real question is whether one team's usual route fits the opponent in front of it.
Sendai are top of J2 with less of the ball than most. They rank first for ball winning and first for fewest shots conceded, and six of their 22 goals came from through balls, their biggest single route. Omiya have the most possession in the league and, by their coach's own claim, the highest line. That is exactly the picture Sendai feed on. The sides that have stalled Sendai at home sat compact and gave them no space; Omiya will not do that.
The key matchup is Omiya's pivot. Kato Gen is suspended, and he led the two squads in duels won and is the screen in front of that line. The shape without him has barely been seen. Sendai's second-ball midfield, with Okuyama and Takeda, can go straight at that gap, and the long ball to the forward skips Omiya's press altogether.
Omiya still bring Carlinhos Junior, Caprini and Izumi's delivery, and they beat Sendai twice last season under a different coach. But they have gone three without a win, and their own players say they are not finishing. Sendai's defeat at Niigata came from two turnovers in attack, and the coach has made that this week's theme. Expect Sendai's goals to arrive after half-time, when the bench comes on. That's why I'm siding with Sendai at home, with a level game covered.
Kashima have a clear home pattern in J1 this season: four wins from four against sides outside the top group. Even their defeat by Kashiwa came with far more chances than the opponent. Their last three games show about three expected goals each while allowing very little.
Cerezo have no away win in five, with three goals, and they have blanked in four of twelve J1 games. Their recent draws are mixed: more finishing trouble than solid defending, and they have been conceding early. Their regulars are fresher than the schedule suggests because Machin rotated at Mito, and Lucas Fernandes down the left is the channel to watch, with Kashima's right side changed by injury.
Kashima's squad works in two groups, so the likely starters, including Suzuki, Shibasaki and Ueda, played little on Wednesday. Crosses, corners, Leo Ceara's finishing and Oniki's bench after the hour all work without needing a fast start. I expect Kashima to take the ball, test the wing-backs and pull clear by a goal or two. That's why I'm siding with Kashima to win.
