Both of these games are a trade of possessions, and in each one the two sides get their extra chances in very different ways. Phoenix has a rebounding hole built into its roster and meets a team that can attack it from three positions. Anyang and Suwon KT are near mirror images, with one living on steals and defence and the other on size and second chances. In both, what matters is which kind of possession is worth more.
Phoenix against Denver starts with the glass. Phoenix was out-rebounded 39-56 at Portland, gave up 19 offensive boards to Golden State and lost the boards 38-48 at Oklahoma City, so three different opponents have found the same gap. Williams has been out since his September surgery, Maluach has not filled the role, and the forwards, Bridges and Brooks, have not closed it. Ighodaro is expected back, but he played part of that Portland game and the hole was there anyway.
The matchup is Jokic with Gordon, Brazile and Bagley against that front line. Jokic has no proven answer in front of him and his passing turns extra possessions into clean looks. Ball security is close to even, with both teams committing about 15 turnovers and forcing about 17, which leaves the glass as the window that really differs. Phoenix's reply is three-point volume, Booker and a bench of shooters led by Gillespie, Goodwin and Kennard. Those bursts are real, but they come from shooting nights, and the Suns have conceded 122 or more in every game.
I expect Phoenix to come out with energy after four days off, and its best stretch to come when Jokic rests. Through the middle quarters Denver's second chances should build a lead of a few possessions, and this could easily stay close into the fourth. That's why I'm siding with Denver to win the game.
Anyang against KT is pressure against size. Anyang's guard group is intact and takes more steals than anyone in the league, and it concedes just 77.7 points a game. KT's turnovers have followed its opponents' steals game after game, Bass is the league's turnover leader, and injuries have left a thin backcourt. During a five-game losing run KT has conceded 91.8 a game while forcing only 4.8 turnovers.
KT's size is a genuine edge. Bass, Porter, Ha Yoon-gi and Moon Jung-hyun will win the boards, and Mooney's long-term injury makes that gap bigger. In the first meeting KT took more shots thanks to 20 offensive rebounds, and the 20-point final margin was really about threes, so I am not carrying that score forward. The bigger change is Thomas: Anyang's two losses without Mooney were one-import games, and Thomas is reported to return for this one with his minutes managed.
Expect Anyang to lead early, KT to push back through the second and third quarters when both of its imports share the floor, and the guards' pressure on a short rotation to decide the late stretch. KT's extra shots are not worth as much as Anyang's live-ball points and better defence. That's why I'm siding with Anyang to win at home.
