Dallas and Houston meet again with the possession battle at the centre of the game. Their first meeting turned on one severe Dallas shooting stretch, live-ball giveaways and Houston's extra shots. This rematch has different late-game creators and a different interior rotation, which makes the next tight stretch especially important.
Houston can press Dallas's first pass with Thompson while VanVleet and Durant keep its half-court attack moving. Dallas now has Irving handling real minutes beside Flagg, with Gafford and Washington needed to finish defensive rebounds and turn stops into paint and perimeter chances. Sheppard is out for Houston after supplying part of its late response against Atlanta, while Şengün's back status has not been settled into a confirmed starting role.
Dallas needs to protect the ball through Houston's second-quarter pressure, then keep the rebound and shot exchange close enough for Irving and Flagg to create at the end. Their recent minutes provide two ways to answer after a tie or a Houston lead. That's why I'm siding with Dallas to finish ahead.
