Two NBA games where the record and the matchup tell different stories. In New York, the Knicks' defence has no answer for the one real flaw Detroit has, so the game moves to the glass and the free-throw line. In Boston, the Nets' only blowout so far had a cause that is turned around in this match. Both games look closer than the names suggest.
Knicks vs Pistons. Detroit is 3-0 with double-digit wins at Miami and Philadelphia and at home against Boston. Its weakness is giveaways, 17 to 19 a game, almost all through Cunningham. New York makes only 6 to 8 steals a game, so those turnovers rarely turn into easy points. New York gives the ball away about as often against a Detroit side that also steals little. With the possession battle level, Detroit's free-throw drawing (20 to 32 attempts) and its rebounding, which was +17 at Philadelphia even without Duren, carry more weight.
New York has not scored more than 103 in a real game. All three losses were close, and it blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to Orlando. Its bench scored 11 in that game, and Alvarado is still out. Duren's absence costs Detroit some size against Towns, but Detroit has already won once without him. Thompson and Joe were at shootaround, and the version of Detroit that won at Philadelphia had neither for most of that game. Even if New York's threes come back up and Detroit's come back down, I get a near-even game with a small home tilt. That's why I'm siding with Detroit to stay close or win.
Celtics vs Nets. Boston lives on threes, 42 a game at a hot rate, and Brooklyn's perimeter defence has leaked 40% from deep. That is Boston's best weapon. Brooklyn answers with its own three-point volume and with trips to the line, about 26 a game, against a Boston defence that has allowed close to 28.
The key detail is timing. Brooklyn's 27-point loss to Indiana came on the second night of its own back-to-back, with a third-quarter collapse and Brown Jr. rested. Rested, it lost by 7 to Charlotte and by 4 at Cleveland. In this match Brooklyn is the rested side, and Boston plays the second night of its first back-to-back after a big win over Chicago. Boston's core is available, but at each team's normal level the margin lands around ten points, and Boston needs another red-hot shooting night to go well past that. That's why I'm taking Brooklyn with the points to keep it within reach.
