In three home games this window, South Korea have not scored a single first-half goal, and they were 0-3 down at the break against Uruguay. Uzbekistan arrive having led at half-time in both of their own games, with goals in the 10th and 27th minutes. So for this friendly the thing I'd watch is the opening half hour: the side that normally needs time to warm up is facing one that likes to get its goal early.
The numbers behind that, all from the match records in our DB. Korea's half-time scores at home were 0-0 against Venezuela, 0-3 against Uruguay (final 1-4) and 0-0 against Ecuador. The Ecuador game turned only after the break, with goals in the 54th, 58th and 86th minutes, and by the 64th Korea had taken three yellow cards against Venezuela in a scrappy 0-0 where they had 7 shots to Venezuela's 12. That is not a team being dominated on the ball (51% against Venezuela), but it is a team that has been slow to turn possession into chances.
Uzbekistan beat Iran 3-1 (Shomurodov in the 10th minute and again from the spot in the 58th, Norchaev in the 90th after coming on in the 89th) and Syria 4-1 (Esanov 27th, Mozgovoy right on half-time, Norchaev 48th and again in the 90th). One caveat before reading too much into it: the only goal each opponent scored was an own goal by Uzbekistan, so their clean-looking defending hasn't really been tested yet. And both games were at home against sides well below Korea's level of recent opposition.
What makes it interesting for me is the way the two patterns could interlock. If Korea's start stays cautious, Uzbekistan's habit of scoring first means Korea would be chasing in a game where, this window, they have scored only after the 50th minute. If Korea do press early, the weak spot would be space behind them, which is what Uruguay used. Two Korea midfielders, Jens Castrop and Cho Yu-min, carry injury marks on the squad list, but that is not a confirmed absence, so I wouldn't build anything on it. Hong Myung-bo has had just four recorded games in this stretch, which is another reason I read the Uruguay game as one bad day rather than the pattern.
Question for those who watched the earlier games: did Korea look slow to start because of the shape, or was it mostly the opponents sitting deep until half-time?
