Two games where the headline numbers hide what's actually walking onto the floor. At Jingu, both starters show up in worse shape than their names suggest, in a park where each of them has been hit hard. In Santiago, Real Madrid arrive on their third game in five days after two Euroleague road losses, against a rested Obradoiro side playing its first home game back in the top flight. Both picks come down to the current state of these teams rather than their reputations.
Kuribayashi's season ERA looks great, but most of that came early. He was around 1.00 through July, then 6.46 in August and 3.38 in September. Jingu has been his worst park (5.73 ERA in two starts), and Yakult hit .292 against him across three starts.
On the other side, Yoshimura comes straight back from the farm. Hiroshima knocked him out after two innings and six runs at this same park in mid-September, which made it 25 runs over four starts. He has a 6.26 ERA at Jingu, has given up 21 homers, and 18 of his 68 runs allowed have come in the first inning.
In the ACB, Madrid lost at Efes and then at Hapoel inside three days before this trip to Galicia. Their shooting from deep has been cold, at 30.3% over their last five games with box scores, and they've won by 11 or more in only two of their last ten. Their league opener was a two-point home win over Unicaja.
Obradoiro have had more than a week off, the league's injury report lists the whole squad as available, and they won at Andorra in their opener. Their first top-flight home game back, against a tired Madrid, sets up a closer game than the name on the other jersey suggests.
