Two leaders, two very different defensive pictures. In both matches the side near the top of the table is the one that creates the chances and the home or away label matters less than the gap in quality at the back.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima travel to Nagasaki as the table leaders, 23 points from 10 with 25 scored and only 6 conceded. They keep around two thirds of the ball and recently produced 24 shots, 13 of them inside the box, against Kyoto, and a clear edge in chance quality at Verdy. Nagasaki sit 15th, conceded nearly 2.8 expected goals at Chiba and score barely a goal a game. Hiroshima won both meetings earlier this year. Lineups are not out and the old injury flags are four days stale, so I am leaning on the structure: Hiroshima's pressure should break a leaky back line, even if the margin is only a goal. That's why I'm siding with Hiroshima to win.
Vegalta Sendai host Imabari as the league leaders, unbeaten in 10 with the tightest defence in the division. Imabari are 18th and concede almost two a game, and their back line loses a centre-back to an official suspension. Sendai's home form has had draws and two goalless games, so the first goal is the hinge, but a visitor that leaks this much and is on a second long trip in Tohoku should give Sendai enough openings. That's why I'm siding with Sendai to win in normal time.
