This matchup is about possessions against free throws. Memphis win by getting extra chances, on the offensive glass and from the ball Utah keep giving away. Utah answer by getting to the line and by starting fast at home. The middle quarters decide which of those two engines wins out.
Memphis are 3-0, and they won the rebounding battle in all three games: 55-38 against Utah in the first meeting, 47-41 at Golden State and 54-44 at Sacramento. That Sacramento win came without Edey, with Stewart starting at centre. Utah score a lot and draw fouls (33 free-throw attempts in the first meeting), but they have conceded 123, 119 and 132 and turned it over 18, 18 and 17 times. Those turnovers are a Utah habit, not something one opponent forced on them.
The key matchup is Memphis's frontcourt against Utah's starting group. Since the first meeting Hardy has moved Hayes to the bench and started Ace Bailey, so Jackson Jr. plays centre next to Markkanen and Bailey. That adds wing scoring but takes away size, and size is exactly where Memphis do their damage. Utah's best channel is Markkanen and Jackson Jr. drawing fouls on the Memphis bigs.
On absences, Nurkic has been out for weeks, so Utah's size problem is not new. Edey sat the front end of the back-to-back and is expected back, but I read this match as if he is out. Memphis's edge on the glass held without him in Sacramento. Coward played heavy minutes the night before and is available.
I expect Utah to have their best stretch in the first quarter at home. The margin should come in the second and third quarters, when Memphis's bench (Spencer, Post, Pippen, Grant) and their rebounding pile up against Utah's weak middle quarters. Memphis won the second quarter of the first meeting 35-20. Jerome's 45 in that game was a hot shooting night, so I don't expect a repeat of the 20-point margin. Strip that out and Memphis still have the edge in possessions.
That's why I'm siding with Memphis to stay in front or keep it within a basket on the road. Their rebounding and Utah's turnovers don't depend on any one player, and Utah's smaller lineup plays right into that.
