Ulsan have conceded 45 goals in 32 league games and Pohang have scored just 28, so this derby is a leaky defence meeting a thin attack. The detail I'd chew on is that Pohang have not scored in their last three matches, while Ulsan's last two results came in games where they were fully open. My question is whether Pohang can create enough against a back line that gives chances away, or whether their recent shot pattern says the problem is volume rather than finishing.
Ulsan first. In our records they lost 4-3 at Gwangju, where they actually had the slightly higher expected goals (2.35 to 2.30) and put 7 of 11 shots on target, then beat Bucheon 2-1 at home after trailing at the break. They score (1.56 a game) but they also give a lot back (1.41 against), which means their games tend to stretch.
Pohang's side is the opposite. They lost 3-0 at Incheon, then lost 2-0 at home to Johor in the Asian Champions League after a red card just before half-time, then drew 0-0 at home with Anyang. That last one is the strange one: Anyang had 20 shots to Pohang's 8, but only 3 on target, so Pohang survived more than they defended. The attack averages 0.88 goals a game.
The two meetings this season both went Ulsan's way (1-0 at home in May, 2-0 at Pohang in August), though that history is thin evidence in a derby that has also produced a 5-4 in 2024. The thing I'd watch is the first goal: an open Ulsan is a good fit for a Pohang side that wants to counter, but if Pohang have to chase, I don't see where their goals come from.
